The U-turn politics of Janata Dal (U)
This was the ninth oath-taking ceremony for Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar as chief minister and the sixth U-turn he has taken—shifting from one party to another— to remain in power in Bihar over the last 19 years. The U-turn this time is on different calculations. Nitish initiated the process of uniting opposition parties against the BJP for the coming Lok Sabha elections—with Tejaswi Yadav in Bihar and opposition chief ministers in West Bengal, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Delhi.
The move to bring opposition leaders on board in Bihar to form the alliance made the BJP restless. However, things started souring from the next bloc meeting. When the decision was taken to name the bloc the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or INDIA, Nitish was not happy. He was also not happy with the alliance’s speed of functioning, such as on the issue of seat sharing, which was reflected in his refusal to take up the bloc’s convenorship. It was also an indication that Nitish was not ready for subordination.
Then came the decision to give the group’s chairmanship to Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge; not only the Congress, but other parties too did not forward Nitish’s name for the top post. Since it was Nitish who had initiated the opposition mobilisation, he was expecting a leadership post. But his credentials were in doubt because of his past unpredictability and frequent change of partners; the alliance was reluctant to take a risk with him.
On the other hand, the RJD had been putting pressure on Nitish to vacate the chief minister’s post in favour of Tejaswi Yadav, and take up a role in national politics. But when the top opposition roles eluded him, Nitish did not have anything substantial in hand.
After being chief minister for nearly two decades, Nitish cannot survive without power. Moreover, he has been more comfortable with the BJP than the RJD, because the RJD exerts power on the bureaucracy through its cadre; Kumar depends more on the bureaucracy than on party cadres, because he lacks such a cadre. So the bureaucracy enjoys maximum power in regimes where Nitish is in alliance with the BJP. At the same time, Nitish has been successful in keeping the BJP’s state leadership under control—not a single BJP leader could grow beyond Nitish during his alliances with the BJP.
The BJP has been accepting of Nitish as chief minister as its leadership knows that the party cannot go it alone in Bihar and the RJD is always ready to join hands with Nitish. The BJP has many advantages in partnering with Nitish. First, being a Lohiaite socialist, he has a secular image and can divide the secular votes to weaken parties like the RJD that enjoy minority support. Second, Nitish has successfully divided the other backward classes (OBC) into backward castes (BC) and extremely backward castes (EBC) in the line of Karpoori Thakur, who created a new category. Nitish went further to divide the scheduled castes into Dalits and Mahadalits. This art of social engineering created a substantial vote bank for Nitish that helps the BJP. Moreover, women-focused schemes, including reservation in panchayats, have given him the support of another vote bank. This is why in 2019 the NDA, with Nitish as a member, bagged 39 seats out of 40 and virtually wiped out the opposition.
Nitish’s latest stint since July 2022—with Tejaswi Yadav as deputy chief minister in the Grand Alliance of JDU-RJD-Congress-Left—was a difficult challenge for the BJP. First, the Nitish-Tejaswi regime conducted a caste survey in 2023 in the state despite the BJP’s opposition. Then Nitish enhanced reservation for economically weaker sections up to 65 percent, with an add-on of 10 percent. Second, he appointed a large number of school teachers and policemen amid an unprecedented rise in unemployment.
It was difficult for the BJP to counter the impact of these two factors in the coming elections. So the BJP re-opened an old bag of corruption charges against Tejaswi; it was clearly used to create pressure on Nitish. Now that Nitish has jumped back to the NDA fold, this tool is likely to be kept back in the bag for the next occasion.
When the JDU joined hands with the RJD in 2015 and formed the state government, Nitish was seen as a possible prime ministerial candidate. But when he severed ties with the RJD and joined hands with the BJP in 2017, he lost his credentials.
In 2020, the BJP was more active in cutting Nitish down to size by using Chirag Paswan as a proxy. BJP leaders were fielded and JDU was reduced to 43 seats from 75. So Nitish, in search of an opportunity, again joined hands with the RJD in July 2022. Since then, the BJP has been trying to take Nitish back in its fold before the 2024 elections.
This time, the BJP has appointed two deputy chief ministers—Vijay Sinha from an upper caste and Samrat Choudhary from an EBC. On one hand, these two appointments would strike a social balance, and on the other, these two leaders were the most aggressive against Nitish in the assembly and in public. Therefore, fielding these two may create a new power balance in favour of the BJP.
There is a view that Nitish may hand over the state gradually to the BJP. The BJP will now benefit from Nitish’s enhanced reservation to EBCs and jobs to teachers. However, Nitish may lose a section of the JDU’s minority votes, who may consolidate back with the Grand Alliance. So this time Nitish may not be as effective as earlier in dividing minority votes in favour of the BJP. It sets up a cascading chain of effects—the Grand Alliance now has to be more judicious in accommodating Muslims and EBCs while fielding candidates; the Congress may have to forgo seats in favour of the RJD and the Left. One small step for Nitish is an upheaval for the opposition.
D M Diwakar, Former Director, A N Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna
(Views are personal)
(dmdiwakar@gmail.com)