The inevitable has happened. Mamata Banerjee has decided to fight the upcoming Lok Sabha elections alone in West Bengal. Her decision comes after months of speculation and uncertainty over the fate of the Trinamool Congress-Congress-Left Front coalition that had formed in 2019 to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Why did Mamata Banerjee decide to go solo? The answer should be pretty obvious.
Mamata, who had initially agreed to the alliance as a tactical move, soon realised that it was not working in her favour. It was obvious from the body language of the leaders during the last meeting of the Opposition INDIA bloc, with Mamata and Rahul Gandhi, not seeing each other eye to eye. Mamata realised soon enough that the alliance was diluting her party’s identity and image.
Moreover, it was also alienating her core supportero had voted for her in preference not only to the Congress, but also the TMC’s predecessor and earlier antagonist, the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPM). After all, the INDIA bloc had faced criticism in Bengal for being opportunistic and unnatural because the TMC and the Left had been bitter rivals for decades. Mamata also sensed that INDIA would not able to counter the BJP’s narrative of nationalism, Hindutva, and corruption charges against her government.
The INDIA alliance, which had already been somewhat of a ragtag patchwork is now truly in tatters. And the cracks are so wide and deep that no length or width of band-aid will cover them, let alone offer a quantum of solace. What if the Congress had accepted Mamata’s suggestion of fielding its party president Mallikarjun Kharge as prime ministerial candidate of the combined opposition? There is no point glancing backwards in regret over missed opportunities.
As if to rub salt on the Congress’ wounds, the TMC has fielded popular cricketer Yusuf Pathan from Behampore against the Congress leader in Lok Sabha, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. Chowdhury has won this seat five times in the past. The Congress, in any case, would have only secured two, possibly three, constituencies had the alliance survived. But now they will have to fight for each seat on their own. They may even be wiped out completely. The die has been cast. There is no turning back.
It will be a straight fight between the TMC and the BJP. In 2019, their score was 22 (TMC) vs 18 (BJP), with vote percentages, 43.3 percent vs 40.7, also too close for comfort. We must not forget that just two years later, in 2021, Mamata managed to sweep the assembly elections, winning a whopping 215 seats. The BJP, with all its hype and fierce campaigning managed, only 77. But in the previous state elections in 2016, they only had won 3 seats. As such, they increased their tally by an incredible 74 seats and their vote share from 10.16 percent to 38.15 percent. The TMC held on to their bastion, though. They added four seats to their tally and their vote share inched ahead of 48 percent.
Mamata has been ruling West Bengal since 2011, over a quarter of a century. When it comes to the assembly elections, neither anti-incumbency nor the Modi magic are enough to disturb her apple cart. Mamata’s “Maa, Mati, Manush”—Mother, Motherland, and Man—still holds sway over the people’s hearts. The BJP’s favourite playbook of polarising the voters along religious lines has not worked either. The Hindu votes have not consolidated en-block on the BJP side. What is more, the voters have shown a high degree of discrimination in voting back Mamata after giving Modi an unambiguous thumbs up just two years earlier in the general elections.
So what will it be this time? The 42 seats of West Bengal make it one of India’s most important states, the leader in the eastern electoral zone. If the BJP increases its 2019 tally of 18 by even a couple of seats, it will take them closer to their declared target of 375 plus. For Mamata, it is not a life and death struggle because she remains at the helm of the state till 2026. But if she increases her seats more convincingly, she will be the principal opposition leader of the country, the only one able to take on Modi. Worse for the Congress, if Mamata wins big, the TMC will be the “real” Congress in the eyes not only of the people but of frustrated Congress leaders. Whatever happens, major political realignments are bound to take place after the results are in.
As for Mamata herself, who can doubt her fearlessness or will to power? Remember how in 1977, only 22, she dared “Loknayak” Jayaprakash Narayan to “Quit Bengal.” As a Youth Congress leader, she stopped JP’s entry into Kolkata (then Calcutta) by jumping onto the bonnet of his jeep. In the 1984 general elections, after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, she scored a major upset by defeating the veteran Communist leader Somnath Chatterjee. She was not yet thirty. At that time, she was known as an ardent member of then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s “shouting brigade.” Jump to 1998: she took on both the CPM and the Tata group. She defeated the former but scored a pyrrhic victory in driving the latter out of Singur right into the welcoming arms of Modi in Gujarat. The voters did not forget, nor did they forgive her. In 2021, she lost her own seat in Nandigram and had to be reelected in a byelection.
Mamata now wants to shore up her own popularity and performance, especially given the multiple corruption charges against her party members, including the nearest of kin. Worse, the communal violence and charges of TMC as anti-Hindu and pro-Muslim. She must regain the trust of her loyal rural and female vote bank. As for the Muslims, most will vote for her.
She knows that the BJP, with its formidable electoral machine, unlimited war chest of money and muscle, plus the magic of Modi and machinations of Amit Shah, will go after her hammer and tongs. Let there be no illusions. This will not be a good fight. But its outcome will be awaited with bated breath. Unless, of course, there is a backdoor deal between Modi and Mamata. But as of now, Didi is the only woman left standing.
(Views are personal)
(On X @MakrandParanspe)
Makarand Paranjape
Professor of English, Jawaharlal Nehru University