When Prime Minister Narendra Modi recalled his bike rides in the late 1990s with Manohar Lal Khattar at a function at Gurgaon on Monday, no one had any inkling that his brief trip down memory lane had a deeper context. Obviously, the exit of Khattar as the Haryana chief minister, planned to be announced by the BJP leadership just the next day, weighed on the mind of the prime minister. He had shared a close equation with Khattar ever since they had worked together—Modi as the central party in charge of Haryana and Khattar as the state general secretary in charge of organisation.
What followed on Tuesday—the resignation of Khattar and anointment of Nayab Singh Saini in his place—was reminiscent of similar changes of the guard in many states ahead of polls to beat incumbency. The change paid off in Gujarat, Tripura and Uttarakhand. Two states—Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh—saw the sitting chief minister lead the party to victory. Two incumbents, Jairam Thakur in Himachal Pradesh and Raghubar Das in Jharkhand, led the party to defeat. In Karnataka, the replacement of B S Yeddyurappa backfired and the party suffered a disastrous defeat.
By removing Khattar, who had been at the helm for close to 10 years, the party has sent out a clear message of change. Assembly elections are due in Haryana in September. Saini may fight the assembly election from Karnal, the seat Khattar has vacated to fight the Lok Sabha election.
The idea of a change in Haryana had been engaging the attention of the BJP leadership for some six months. The original choice that emerged through a string of meetings was Lok Sabha member from Karnal, Sanjay Bhatia, a Punjabi like Khattar, but the move was dropped when it was realised that in public perception, it would mean very little change. Afterwards, Khattar put forward the name of Saini, then the state BJP president. The leadership made its own calculations and doubled down on Saini’s name.
Now, the big question is how the change would play out in state politics. The BJP presently holds all of the state’s 10 Lok Sabha seats. Its principal rival is the Congress, led by former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a Jat leader.
Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, two—Ambala and Sirsa—are reserved for scheduled caste candidates. Four seats—Rohtak, Sonipat, Hisar and Bhiwani-Mahendragarh—are traditionally represented by Jats. Gurgaon is an Ahir-dominated constituency. Kurukshetra, Karnal and Faridabad are considered good constituencies for Saini, Brahmin and Gujjar candidates, respectively.
Jats, with an estimated 22 percent of the state’s population, are electorally the strongest chunk. In the state’s Jat versus non-Jat politics, the BJP has successfully played the non-Jat card. Its task was made easier by the violent 2016 Jat agitation for securing the Other Backward Class status. Attacks on non-Jat businesses, including loot and arson, followed by caste clashes, led to a level of polarisation between the two sections. As a result, there has been consolidation in the state’s non-Jat vote.
Devi Lal and his son Om Prakash Chautala had been the most influential Jat leaders since 1977. However, Devi Lal’s demise and Chautala’s imprisonment in the JBT teacher recruitment case led to an erosion of the family’s mass base. The ascendance of Hooda to the chief ministership made members of the community turn to him. Hooda undoubtedly has the maximum clout among Jats. However, Jat candidates of the BJP would also poll some votes from their community.
The Devi Lal clan is, meanwhile, divided between two groups, led by Dushyant Chautala and his uncle Abhay Chautala. Dushyant, whose Jannayak Janta Party shared power with the BJP, has just broken it off with it, making it inevitable for the Jat vote to split too, with a larger section possibly going with Hooda.
The hardcore non-Jat vote bloc includes Dalits (21 percent), Brahmins, Punjabis and Banias (totalling over 20 percent).
The Sainis, accounting for some 8 percent vote share, are generally acceptable to all other communities. They have a sizeable presence in Ambala, Kurukshetra, Hisar and Rewari districts. Outside the state, they have a sizeable presence in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan. The community would be enthused to vote in larger numbers for the BJP this time, given the new choice of chief minister.
The sense of alienation among several pro-BJP sections on account of the earlier ‘Punjabi domination’ would subside. Though the BJP had managed to install and sustain Khattar as chief minister because of the party’s muscle power, in normal circumstances, this step would be against conventional wisdom. For a Hindi-speaking state carved out of a bilingual province after a bitter feud, being made to accept a Punjabi chief minister is quite something. But the BJP did accomplish that feat.
One state Punjabi leader seemingly headed for oblivion is former Home Minister Anil Vij. He walked out of a legislature party meeting on Tuesday. His protest has not gone down well with those who matter. Sources indicated that he may be denied a ticket for the next assembly polls.
The saffron party has clearly done its mathematics well. It’s the rivals who have to get their numbers right.
Pradeep Kaushal
Political analyst
(Views are personal)