Let’s proceed from the obvious so that we can start with consensus—usually a far horizon when it comes to politics. Take one point on which there exists unanimity on all sides. Simply, it’s the fact that the BJP has a striking asymmetry in the geographical distribution of its Lok Sabha holdings and it would like nothing more than to remedy that. The saffron party’s actions show transparently that its Chanakyas are very keen on this spatial expansion. The new target of 370+ seats, logically enough, makes it even more imperative. And it was explicitly with the objective of blocking such a lateral growth that the INDIA alliance, which is attempting another big show of renewed solidarity in Delhi on Sunday, too was formed.
On a grander note, this pursuit has an ideological relevance of its own for the BJP, going beyond battlefield imperatives. For, despite its mammoth majority in the outgoing House, the presence of entire provinces where it is very nearly non-existent must rankle. It’s not the most satisfying self-portrait for a party that’s high on symbolism and likes to think of itself as speaking for the nation. As we get caught up in the dizzying plethora of provincial wars where it will be seeking to change that equation, one could even think of the quest as the real meta script for the 2024 general election.
To reprise, the tactical necessities too are well-recognised. In virtually all its old strongholds, the BJP’s growth has hit the circuit-breaker—it had already filled out its potential to the maximum in 2019. So the only way to hedge against any risk of erosion there was build a buffer stock of new seats. That is, if the party wishes to give itself a guarantee of invincibility in these elections, it has to grow in new regions. But how? That’s the part which gives us a window into how India’s democratic polity is evolving, on a historical plane.
The BJP’s critics have been quick to decry its aggressive, predatory instincts in states vis-a-vis regional parties—including old allies like the Shiv Sena. But they have mostly remained stuck at a behavioural reading. That too in a piecemeal, episodic, state-specific way. This keeps us glued to the sordid serial dramas of betrayals, of Vibhishans in the family, of Enforcement Directorate cases followed by defections, resort politics, individual ambitions, imputed behind-the-scenes deals, threats, blandishments. All that makes for compelling viewing—the ruling party makes no bones about the value-neutral ways in which it practises power—but these mortal battles between Goliath and a series of fallen Davids hold us from grasping a larger structural pattern.
Indian democracy seems to love binaries. Despite being a multi-party system, it boils everything down to the simplicity of two. This is clear enough at the national level. At one time, it was Congress vs The Rest. Anti-Congressism was so strong that it could get even the BJP and Left to cohabit. Now it’s Saffron vs The Rest, with antagonism towards a common foe producing similar adhesive properties.
But even at the state level, we are largely an aggregation of binaries. A whole bunch of states are stable at their traditional Congress-vs-BJP politics: Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand. But see how Bengal moved seamlessly from a Left/Congress binary to a Left/TMC one and now TMC/BJP? As if it innately resists triangles and quadrangles. If a new entity rises, the old one simply collapses. Similarly, Odisha had the Biju Patnaik estate vs Congress (now replaced by BJP). United Andhra had Congress vs TDP. Tamil Nadu had DMK vs AIADMK. Kerala took its entire noisy rainbow and recomposed it as LDF vs UDF. Till the BJP came along, Karnataka too was Congress vs Janata Dal. Assam had Congress vs AGP. Till AAP happened, Punjab was a fight between the Akalis and Congress too. Only Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra truly went outside this pattern to create multi-polar polities. Their sheer geographical scale and demographic complexity perhaps partly explains this allowance or space for plurality.
The relevant point here is that, coincidentally, as a function of pure time, one half of these binaries is collapsing or is on the cusp of doing so across India. So what we have now is an aggregation of transitions in the politics of many big states. Everywhere we see that a big regional party—often a legatee of the old socialist Janata parivar—is on its last legs simply because a leader is in the winter of his or her political life. And it is into the resultant vacuum that the BJP is seeking to insert itself, while keeping the binary alive. Ironically, many of them are entering into alliances with the BJP for palliative care just to extend their lease on existence, despite being aware of its predatory ways.
The classic case is Bihar. It may be difficult for the JD(U) to outlast Nitish Kumar—its flock of career politicians will conceivably all be subsumed, or pivot to the RJD. Naveen Patnaik’s BJD too is not far from such an eventuality, nor is Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP. Like old rajas and nawabs did with the East India Company two centuries ago, all three were wagering on one last hurrah in the company of the very entity that will seize their estates one day. (That Naveen eventually shrank back from signing on the nuptials is mere detail.)
Whether the post-Jayalalithaa AIADMK will hold out or leave a crack in the Dravidian polity for the saffron party is, again, a game to be watched post-2024. Bereft of a mass leader, the Congress in Kerala, despite its organisational presence on the ground, too is showing signs of soil erosion. The next generation of the BRS in Telangana will also have to show some real mettle if it has to ward off that fate.
What this also puts to test is the thesis about the so-called fragmentation of Indian politics with the mushrooming of regionalist or caste-based parties. That happy cacophony was a phenomenon that deepened our democracy and brought it closer to articulating very many more voices. But the fact is that, psychologically, a binary often lurked beneath the surface. India is presently negotiating between the idea of the Many and that of the Two. The saffron imagination is not entirely without an idea of the One either.
Of course, none of this is fully coming to fruition in this summer’s election. So while the commentariat has been prone to thinking of this as the final do-or-die battle, it probably only marks a transit point en route to a larger, ongoing evolution. For, on its part, what the BJP too has done is to make ad-hoc arrangements to secure the buffer seats it needs. It is tilling the fields, and sprinkling fertiliser. The real sowing season lies beyond the bend in the road.
Santwana Bhattacharya
Editor
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