The re-election of Donald Trump as president has been rightly described as one of the greatest comebacks in American political history. Trump overcame a campaign demonising him as a fascist, xenophobe, misogynist and convicted felon. Equally telling is the fact that, after a divisive campaign, he is probably securing a majority of popular vote.
Trump’s victory, bolstered by the likelihood of Republicans retaking the Senate and retaining the House of Representatives, gives him a solid mandate to pursue the conservative agenda that emerged in his campaign speeches, but is more cogently expressed in policy documents drafted by his close advisors, Project 2025 among them.
The US results rhyme with trends that have been evident in Europe in recent years, where increasing proportions of the population, unhappy about the economic and social directions in which liberal policies are taking them, are voting for parties that mainstream groups ostracise as far right and fascist. The emergence of the new Trumpian Republican ideology could influence attitudes in Europe, tempering some of the undemocratic methods that have been used to keep such parties out of governance.
The Trump agenda includes unrestrained exploitation of America’s fossil fuel, bringing more industries back to the US, and creating millions of jobs in the de-industrialised parts of the country, and driving fuel prices down. It includes steep tariff increases—both to induce trade partners to reduce their tariffs and to encourage industry to set up in the US and substitute imports. Tax cuts as an incentive to business has been a consistent Trump mantra.
Sequencing these measures to ensure that inflation does not balloon, wild price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions do not occur, and the fiscal deficit does not continue to rise steeply would be a major challenge. There is, as yet, no indication how this would be done.
Externally, for all the wild claims that have been made, Trump’s approach to the world has been pretty clearly articulated. He is conscious of the fact that the US is today an overstretched superpower. He is against US involvement in wars and putting US boots on the ground, except to protect vital US national interests in a fiscally responsible manner—and always keeping in mind that the principal strategic adversary is China. Where the US and its allies are involved in jointly defending security interests, the allies should bear their fair share of the burden.
Putting aside his campaign boast that he would resolve the Ukraine conflict overnight, his longer-term vision is that Europe and Russia should work out a Eurasian security architecture. European NATO allies should step up and reinforce their defence capabilities, so that they build a viable conventional deterrent, while the US steps in with a nuclear umbrella. This could give the American military-industrial complex a stable business stream.
It is less clear how Trump would deal with the West Asian war. His steadfast support for Benjamin Netanyahu would certainly give him better leverage over him than a wavering Biden administration has had. Exploiting this to further an initiative that he commenced with the Abraham Accords will be a formidable test of his deal-making abilities.
During his campaign, Trump has spoken warmly of India and of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is consistent with public statements in both countries of bipartisan support in the US for strong ties with India. The strategic underpinning of this support is that a democratic India in Asia, strategically located next to China and on the Indian Ocean, would be a valuable partner in furthering US economic and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. This strategic interest has been reciprocated by India. Defence sales, technology transfers and a surge in trade have served to cement these ties.
That said, the quality of the relationship has varied over the years. As a US strategic analyst recently pointed out, the American attitude to the relationship during the Bush administration was one of “strategic altruism”—a strong, democratic India in South Asia was a sufficient asset for the US, without having to restrain India from other relationships to further its interests. Elements in the Biden administration have been more critical of India for not reciprocating US support with a position on Russia and China more aligned with their own.
This has led to some discordant manifestations in recent months. Public statements and actions—often in conjunction with Canada—have not only elevated differences over the activities of intelligence agencies to the political domain, but have included harsh public assertions that accountability will be pursued relentlessly “regardless of... proximity to power”.
A connected example is of the White House inviting a group of pro-Khalistan representatives to publicly assure them “protection from any transnational aggression on its soil” on the day that Modi landed in the US to be feted by President Biden about shared democratic values.
How the Trump administration will address such issues remains to be seen. There will always be friction in the relationship because of the asymmetry: the US, as a superpower, has multiple interests across geographies, some of which may clash with India’s. The maturity of the relationship is gauged by the ability to address such differences sensitively and without sanctimonious lecturing, recognising that India has progressed beyond where it was two decades ago.
The Trump agenda, domestic and external, will come up against deeply entrenched ideas and vested interests. The ability to navigate them will depend on Trump’s staying power and the quality, loyalty and commitment of the senior personnel he can assemble around him. This was an issue in his first term.
The Trump administration will commence only in the third week of January. Till then, a lot can be expected from the present administration to safeguard its own legacy, and from a variety of foreign powers to ‘Trump-proof’ their interests to the extent possible. This happened before the first Trump administration, too. It may be less possible today, when an incoming administration has control of the Congress and when the judiciary is sympathetic.
Trump’s victory is a landmark event. But while half of America is elated, the other half is traumatised. His promise to unify the country would be important to address the political dysfunction of recent years.
(Views are personal)
(raghavan.ps@gmail.com)
P S Raghavan | Distinguished Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation and a former diplomat