The second coming of Donald Trump as POTUS is likely to have a significant impact on the world and on India too. At least three characteristics of his last incumbency project his style and focus, which could have a bearing in the future.
The first is his propensity to use his position to criticise perceived adversaries in the media, foreign officials, personalities in both political parties, and even foreign heads of state. Not one to take much advice, the conventional style of diplomacy followed by the state department, for example, doesn’t gel with him. In four years, he had nine officials serve with him as secretaries of state and defence, and as national security adviser—all key appointments. Consistency and ability to get along aren't Trump’s high marks, although he advocates peace at most times.
Second, his willingness to challenge norms was a hallmark of his presidency. He was willing to overturn past customs and expectations of presidential behaviour. His obsession with America First and Make America Great Again may not necessarily allow rational decision making because he could be restricted in thinking to first order effects of decisions.
Third, his outspoken nature was a trait that defined his presidency. His morning tweets sometimes seemed to reflect the subject and strategy of his dreams. Yet, to think Trump is not capable and his decisions always border on a maverick’s would be entirely incorrect; because over four years, he could bring his influence to almost every area of US interest.
The above were some important observations from the American media to begin with while attempting to analyse the coming of President Trump 2.0. There is no special relationship with India that he looks at, but apparently the attitude and approach towards India was and will be positive.
The priority for the Indo-US relationship under his presidency is likely to be strategic partnership, driven by shared concerns about China's growing influence in Asia. His view on India's proximity to Russia is expected to be pragmatic. The last time, it will be recalled that the Indo-Russia S-400 deal worth $5 billion had all the potential to scuttle much in Indo-US relations due to India’s continued insistence about its strategic autonomy. Yet, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act was not applied to India.
His administration will likely continue to encourage India to reduce its dependence on Russian military equipment, citing Russia's increasing international isolation due to its actions in Ukraine. Trump may focus on strengthening defence cooperation with India, potentially offering alternative military equipment and technology. Yet, a lot will depend upon the fate of the war in Ukraine and the status of US-Russia relations, which probably will see some improvement. Stopping hostilities in Ukraine would give Russia a chance to deliver to India more on its promises as it seeks continuity in its long-standing defence relationship. If sanctions were to be diluted or lifted altogether, India would find it easier to do business with Russia from whom it has purchased weapons and equipment worth over $60 billion in the last many years.
Trump is apparently far more comfortable with India's strategic autonomy and independent decision-making than the Democrats were. Therefore, should the Ukraine situation improve, India and Russia may be back in defence business, with due emphasis on manufacturing in India.
However, there is always the potential of something different happening too. If Russian President Vladimir Putin does not play ball even under Trump’s supposed friendly coercion, the consequences could be quite unpredictable.
The Biden administration had looked at India’s equidistance from Ukraine and Russia as an issue of interest in the larger build-up to possible negotiations. Whether Trump 2.0 will follow that with any interest may be doubtful as he perhaps perceives he knows the Russian president best and can handle this himself.
The reported possibility that Florida Senator Marco Rubio is likely to be named secretary of state may be music to the ears of some strategic circles in India. He is a known hardliner on China and is likely to aim to foster a strong India-US partnership to counterbalance China's expanding influence. He has been among the most outspoken senators on the need for the US to be more aggressive on China. For that, he may expect India to be a ready partner.
India’s recent agreement on patrolling rights and reducing tension at the Line of Actual Control has been a positive development almost five years after China attempted shades of coercion in Ladakh to apparently temper our and the world’s perception of India’s rise. The challenge before India will therefore be on how to balance the improvement of its relations with China with the more aggressive designs the Trump administration could bring to bear in the approach towards China.
India's strategic decisions regarding its border dispute with China are guided by its national interests, and the US respects that sovereignty. The US-India partnership will then need to build on promoting regional stability, security and economic cooperation, rather than perpetuating confrontation.
Trump’s West Asia policy will be watched with much interest. It's in his time that the Western Quad was mooted and the US, UAE, India and Israel established the special equation. An end to the Gaza and Lebanon conflicts will allow this and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor to rise to expectations. It's only Trump who can effectively ensure an end to Israeli intransigence and take initiatives with the Arab states to seek ways of achieving Palestinian aspirations without Hamas.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s focused approach on West Asia has provided ample scope and opportunity to expand India’s ties with that region. This can be realised to a higher potential by a major Trump approach to peace and stability in the area. Unfortunately, the Iran factor will continue to dog the region’s peace potential. It will take much of Trump’s decision making to either opt for a conciliatory or a confrontationist approach with Iran. The relationship with Iran is likely to prove a greater test for Trump 2.0 than perhaps the one with even China.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps; Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir
(Views are personal)
