Sri Lanka is at the throes of a critical election, the first after the island’s economic collapse and the 2022 protest movement, popularly known as the ‘Aragalaya’. There are 39 presidential contenders—all men—and at least three frontrunners, according to opinion polls.
Stars do lie, so do opinion polls—or at the least, they can confuse, misdirect, and influence voter opinion. I am not even getting to survey methodologies and samples here. Many people I know wait for weekly updates as if they are betting on horses, trying to gauge the winner of these popularity quests. Take a deeper look, and it goes beyond simple curiosity. Some want to reconfirm their choice of candidate is leading, while others watch poll results with a sense of trepidation, deja vu, desolation and uncertainty. Clearly there’s more than one bloc.
All elections, big and small, are important. It allows public participation in the selection of political leaders. In this critical poll, it is not about mere transfer of power. It is about leadership that can offer a course correction, economic overhaul, broad reforms and reducing burdens placed on people. The next president will have to treat the economy, reduce people’s suffering, reset the economic agenda, service debt, and set a domestic agenda with an eye on strategic geopolitical interests.
Back to pollsters. The political intensity is naturally fuelled by popularity surveys. It is not difficult to identify the frontrunners—Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa, with a close popularity rate. Some analysts suggest there could even be a second preference count, an option Sri Lanka did not have to follow during previous presidential races. Incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe is in position number three, some polls say.
Some 17.1 million are eligible to vote, including a million first-time voters. Out of this, 56 percent are women. Whether their aspirations are sufficiently reflected in these polls is a question of fact. Whether the non-urban population’s viewpoint is equally represented is also a concern.
Then there is the horse racing we journalists are often culpable of. While pole vaulting is entrenched in our politics, the media also often play truant, uninformed or divisive messengers through horse racing journalism. We cover elections the way people bet on horses, offering coverage that unduly focuses on polling data and public perceptions instead of candidate policy. Such forecasting can confuse voters and possibly lead them to believe a certain election outcome to be a foregone conclusion, thus influencing their political opinion. Such journalism amounts to tampering with electoral integrity and is a convenient way for political groups to lobby their cause or mount influence operations.
Little wonder that a week ago, the Commissioner General of Elections had to caution voters against various election surveys in the lead-up to the polls, and request them to not feel compelled to change their opinions due to surveys. In recent weeks, Sri Lanka saw false information being circulated, specially via social media, falsely attributed to agencies such as the UN and the European Union, highlighting the need for voter awareness and political literacy.
Let’s switch from polls to the candidates themselves: There is Ranil Wickremesinghe, an independent candidate (faulted for splitting the mammoth United National Party (UNP)), a nominated MP who was constitutionally appointed president following Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation. He brought temporary relief when the country was at a standstill, when the island was hit with long power cuts, no fuel and limited food supplies. Wickremesinghe says he kept the country afloat, dredged it out of an economic impasse, secured an IMF bailout and drew support from the international community to introduce a degree of ‘stability’. He is critiqued for being a front for the Rajapaksas, a family considered responsible for the island’s state of bankruptcy, nepotism and kleptocracy. Wickremesinghe’s presidency is marred by a lack of moral authority due to the absence of a popular mandate, given that the majority had wanted Rajapaksas to step down in 2022.
Premadasa and Dissanayake have both held ministerial portfolios, and entered parliament in 2000, gradually rising in ranks. This writer interviewed both candidates in an interview series with first-time legislators when the fresh-faced politicians shared their political aspirations. At the time, the left-leaning Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, currently led by Dissanayake, sought “the key to the legislature” and sure enough, people would give them sizable representation in the House. Dissanayake spoke of resetting the political agenda through legislative reforms, policy resets, curbing corruption, increasing food production and a people-based economy. Sajith Premadasa spoke of making the liberal economy work for the people, or capitalism with a human face (a catch phrase introduced by former president Chandrika Kumaratunga), of strengthening democracy and strong public institutions. He was also the only legislator who said his ultimate goal was to become the president of Sri Lanka. It seemed far too ambitious 24 years ago, but Premadasa has unsuccessfully contested against Gotabaya Rajapaksa and is now seeking a mandate as a seasoned politician, leader of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya and Leader of Opposition.
For Sri Lanka, the upcoming election is crucial. The nation is required to make a political choice capable of leading the country through an extremely difficult period. The coming years are likely to be tougher than the last two years people have lived through.
During such a decisive time, it is necessary to look beyond words and golden promises that are not actionable. Electing a leader and his team at a parliamentary election is not going to provide the people with the solutions they need. To garner votes, it is possible to offer subsidies, tax cuts, immediate systemic overhaul and more. These are truly hard times. The nation needs democratic reforms, social equity, sustainable development, export-led growth, modernised agriculture and foreign direct investment. It needs mechanisms that will not fail people all over again.
The next president inherits a thorny crown and will not have things easy. Voters have a key role to play, not only in selecting the next president, but demanding accountability from him, demanding policy statements that are not figments of imaginations but are truly actionable. My fingers remain crossed.
(Views are personal)
(dilrukshi@cir.lk)
(dilrukshihandunnetti@gmail.com)
Dilrukshi Handunnetti | Award-winning journalist and lawyer, founder and director of the Colombo-based Center for Investigative Reporting (CIR)