The diplomatic and strategic security hierarchies of India are fully seized of the plethora of geopolitical challenges that have come in India’s path as we fought our way out of the pandemic and restored our balance over the last two years. Simultaneously, with improving economic prospects as the fastest growing large economy and our aims quite clearly set upon achieving various benchmarks, there is clearly a need for an even more pragmatic approach to national security.
Wars of any kind would be anathema at such a time and sub-conventional threats even worse due to their longevity and all-pervading impact on society. The world is at a juncture where clarity in developing geopolitical situations is indeterminate and decision-making strewn with challenges. In purely strategic security terms, such a time is best handled through immense forbearance and maturity, with an eye on second and third-order impact. In many ways, this could also be defined as the era of ‘strategic patience’.
There is plenty of evidence that doing nothing in geopolitical terms is many times a good strategy, but that isn’t what strategic patience alludes to. Individuals, leaders, organisations and society often have an ‘action bias’, virtually a psychological compulsion to act, while procrastination is politically considered passé. At such times, that indeed is dangerous. How does this philosophy apply to India’s geopolitical matrix of the current times?
When the US withdrew from Afghanistan, it appeared fairly plausible that it was girding its loins in preparedness for what strategists called the inevitable confrontation with China. China was at an aggressive high through the pandemic, repelling criticism of its irresponsible handling of the crisis and using coercion through wolf warrior diplomacy. India’s proximity to the US unwittingly enhanced as the strategic partnership developed faster than it may otherwise have.
However, the US focus towards the Indo-Pacific received competition from other regions as soon as the Ukraine war broke out on February 24, 2022. That is when the issue of India’s neutrality and strategic autonomy came into prominence. India did exactly what was most suitable: it remained balanced in its relationships while quietly pursuing its national interest, which in this case revolved around cheap and sufficient energy, and an uninterrupted supply chain of military hardware for its Russian-orientated equipment.
The G20 interlude of a year gave India a strategic opportunity to elevate its engagement to a higher platform and be viewed as a key player in the developing strategic dynamics. The recent deliberate and unhurried approach to intervention as an intermediary in conflict resolution between Russia and Ukraine is a fine demonstration of strategic patience. India’s prime minister sought no outcomes from his visits to Russia and Ukraine, only greater sensitisation, although many expected an immediate ceasefire and some measures towards resolution.
This is equally applicable to the Middle East, where India had over the last 10 years cultivated relationships beginning to bear fruit. The proposed India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) was at an interesting stage of decision making when the Israel-Hamas war broke the back of all engagements. IMEC went into a shell, as did the other interesting emerging equation—India-Israel-US-UAE , also referred to as the Western Quad. The entire focus shifted to the war in Gaza, the Iran-Israel standoff and the potential outcome.
India has remained on the sidelines and continued to affirm support to peace. In the progressing situation, there existed much scope for losing the gains of the last 10 years. None of that has happened, although India’s role as a potential mediator has not emerged in this conflict. Remaining at a standstill in some contentious geopolitical situations is also an achievement of sorts and is often the outcome of strategic patience.
The US presidential election will no doubt have a major impact on the world’s polity and the way international affairs will progress from the standstill they are in at the moment. India has maintained a balanced equanimity towards the presidential candidates just as in the past. Rightly so, the diplomatic progress in Indo-US relations has continued without a break.
However, sooner than later, India’s stance on various issues will need a more decided approach; Iran, for example, or even US-Pak relations. The Gaza war will taper off at some stage in the near future, leaving the Middle East in deep cleavages. That is the time we need to be prepared for. Recent visits into Europe by our political leadership have also been in anticipation of new and unpredictable dynamics that will inevitably emerge if violence in Ukraine draws down post the US elections.
Closer home, in the precincts of our ‘near abroad’ region, a major strategic change has occurred, posing a foreign policy challenge. The regime change in Bangladesh has upset a strategic comfort level that seemed to exist for long, at least 15 years. However, a very gloomy picture is being painted with reference to the future of Indo-Bangladesh relations. Jaideep Saikia, stated in a recent article that “strategic forethought, unfortunately, cannot be addressed just on the basis of the visible and the apparent.”
In reality, when a comfort zone gets breached, there is a rush to restore it; in fact, the effort usually seeks a facsimile of the situation of the past. That situation will not return for long, maybe never. Hence the necessity to view the emerging challenge from all angles.
We are seeing the devil in diverse avatars everywhere, all gunning against our interests; the Jamaat, the BNP, Pakistan’s ISI, the North East rebels and more. However, we need not forget the congruence of interests that India and Bangladesh enjoy. India’s economic growth positively impacts Bangladesh too, as do issues such as water sharing, disaster management, medical tourism and education. We can retrieve much of the perceived loss by maintaining strategic patience and speaking much less, especially among less informed circles.
Lastly, with the J&K elections lined up, the potential scenarios are just too many. We could speculate less on those and just have the patience to see through peaceful elections. There is no need for any hurry in bringing any major change there without first ensuring full and firm consultation.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) | Former Commander, Srinagar-based 15 Corps; Chancellor, Central University of Kashmir
(Views are personal)