Good data not only helps formulate strategy, but also reduces the risk of policy paralysis. Over the last 75 years, data produced as part of the National Sample Survey (NSS) has punched above its weight in this regard. The first survey was conducted between October 1950 and March 1951. As we celebrate the diamond jubilee of NSS, it is an opportune time to acknowledge its track record in shaping the narrative on how to improve the well-being of rural and urban households.
Good data needs to inform on the emerging weaknesses in the economy. Take the female labour force participation rate (LFPR). Google Scholar throws up 107 results for a combined search of ‘female’, ‘labour force participation’, ‘India’ and ‘NSS’ for the time period 1991-2000. This number goes up to 342 for 2001-2010, and further to 1,240 over the period 2011-2020. This means the number of documents that either used NSS data or referred to it while discussing female LFPR in India grew exponentially.
One is naturally curious to know the reasons for the sudden increase in discussion around the female LFPR. It is the ratio of the women working or seeking work to the total number of women. Estimates from the Employment and Unemployment Survey conducted in 2004-05 and 2011-12 indicated that the women’s participation had declined from 25 to 18 percent in rural India, while it marginally declined from 15 to 13.6 percent in urban India over that time period.
This led to research on whether firms were unwilling to hire women or whether women were unwilling to participate in the labour market. Recent evidence from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which is being conducted annually from 2017-18, is that FLFPR has increased in rural India, but more women are working as unpaid help at home or family enterprises.
While India will soon become a $4-trillion economy, it has one of the lowest female LFPRs. Another emerging concern flagged by PLFS estimates is the relatively higher unemployment rate among women who have completed at least secondary education, as compared to men. Among the policy instruments being tried to boost women’s workforce participation include facilitating access to credit, skilling and entrepreneurship programmes.
If the catchphrase today is ‘sabka saath sabka vikas’, the buzz-phrase in the mid-2000s was ‘inclusive growth’. Consequently, there was a spurt in research using data from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES). The narrative focused on the pace of poverty reduction and the need to cover all poor households under the public distribution system. One did see an improvement in the functioning of the distribution system across India. This becomes evident when one compares estimates from the HCES of 2004-05 and 2011-12.
While we are far from realising the objective of ‘one nation, one ration card’—that is, the portability of PDS benefits—we have taken steps towards fulfilling this objective. With the release of data from HCES 2022-23 and 2023-24, it is only to be expected that there will be a spurt in discussion on consumption patterns and healthy diets.
Two other areas where NSS data has shed crucial light are education and health. Multiple surveys conducted on education expenditure have helped understand households’ decision to send their children to government or private schools, and the choice of the instruction medium. Estimates from the health expenditure survey highlighted the issue of families’ out-of-pocket expenditure.
NSS data has been essential in informing the deliberations of important committees. The Expert Group on Agricultural Indebtedness (2007), National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (2007), Committee on Doubling on Farmer’s Income (2017) and Working Group on Migration (2017)—all relied on NSS data.
Based on the analysis of unit-level data from the surveys, the Working Group on Migration argued that the popular narrative that women predominantly move for marriage was, at best, a partial understanding. Women who move for marriage form a majority of the female workforce in India. By providing information on the work status of individuals before and after migration, the NSS provides a slice of the labour market histories of these individuals.
On the issue of financial inclusion, the Pradhan Mantri Jan-Dhan Yojana has succeeded in one important objective. According to the Comprehensive Annual Modular Survey 2022-23, nearly 95 percent of individuals aged 18 and above have an individual or joint account. While India has made remarkable strides in facilitating digital payments, the same survey highlights an important pain point that needs to be addressed. Only 51 percent of men and 29 percent of women aged 15-29 know how to perform online banking transactions. Since Jan-Dhan accounts are eligible for direct benefit and other transfers from the central and state governments, it is important to improve financial literacy and train people to perform online banking.
At the risk of belabouring the point, the NSS has played a critical role in shaping the narrative and identifying policy measures—especially in the last 25 years. Moving forward, it needs to provide periodic report cards on the state of welfare in Indian households as the nation progresses towards the objective of Viksit Bharat 2047.
However, just like the official statistical agencies in other countries, the NSS too is facing difficulties while conducting surveys. In 2018, The Economist ran an article on the plunging response rates to household surveys. When households decline to answer survey questions or fatigue affects the quality of responses, it’s counted as a non-sampling error. This problem was acknowledged by the NSS way back in the 1950s. It does not have any easy solution.
This does not mean we reduce our reliance on survey data. Just like in the past, estimates from NSS data will complement the insights available from administrative and alternative data. While the administrative data will provide information on outlay and coverage, surveys conducted by the NSS will provide insights on access, availability and affordability of goods and services. The reality is better understood when the two are put together.
(Views are personal)
S Chandrasekhar | Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; member, Steering Committee for National Sample Surveys