Dam-building spree is a zero-sum game

China and India have competed to construct dams in the ecologically fragile and seismically vulnerable Himalayas, like the 600-MW Kameng project on the Bichom and Tenga rivers. It’s time for a Himalayan Water Commission involving all countries in the region.
An aerial view of the Kameng hydropower station in the West Kameng district of Arunachal Pradesh.
An aerial view of the Kameng hydropower station in the West Kameng district of Arunachal Pradesh.Photo | Press Information bureau
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4 min read

It has been widely reported that China has approved the construction of the world’s largest hydropower dam in Tibet on the Yarlung Tsangpo river. When the river enters Arunachal Pradesh, it’s known as Siang; it continues as the Brahmaputra in Assam and the Jamuna in Bangladesh. The proposed dam has the potential to generate 60 gigawatts of hydropower.

Chinese authorities assert the project is vital for achieving the nation’s goal of attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. As the news spread about China’s plan to build the dam in Mêdog county, the Indian government was quick to reiterate its own plans to dam the Himalayan rivers. India is also reportedly considering a 12- GW hydropower project in the remote east and wants to conduct feasibility surveys.

The protests against the proposed 12- GW Upper Siang hydropower project by residents of the affected areas in Arunachal Pradesh gathered momentum after the state decided to deploy central armed police forces to keep protestors away to begin the survey. Activists and residents have long opposed the proposed dam, fearing displacement and considering the project’s environmental impact. Representatives of residents of affected villages had written to the Union home ministry and the state government opposing claims recently made that most residents support it.

When India expressed its reservations about the Chinese initiative to build the dam, it rightfully said the project will affect water availability in the lower riparian countries. The Chinese foreign ministry defended the plan, claiming it would not do so. The Chinese claim is false—but India’s justification for building a mega dam is also built on the wrong edifice.

Consider the reaction of Arunachal’s Deputy CM Chowna Mein, who explained how the Siang dam will help counter the Mêdog dam: “If China releases water, the entire Siang, Brahmaputra Valley, and Guwahati’s Saraighat Bridge will be submerged. To address this, our government has decided to construct the Siang Dam. It is not only intended for generating electricity, but it will also assist us in managing the water from the Chinese side.”

Similar concerns regarding the Chinese dam have been expressed by Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, who remarked, “If this dam is established, the Brahmaputra ecosystem will become entirely fragile; it will dry up and will solely depend on the rainwater from Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh.”

Their claims are also self-contradictory; as a lower riparian state, Bangladesh could raise the same objections to India’s attempts to construct a mega dam. In the past several decades, China and India have competed intensely in constructing hydroelectric dams in this ecologically fragile and seismically vulnerable region. Two hydropower projects are currently under construction in Arunachal Pradesh on the tributaries of the Brahmaputra: the 600 MW Kameng project on the Bichom and Tenga rivers and the 2,000 MW Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project.

Meanwhile, China has completed 11 of the 55 such projects planned for the Tibetan region. The entire Himalayan region is known to host active faults defined by high seismicity. Landslides and glacier lake outbursts are generic to this mountainous topography. About 15 percent of the great earthquakes in the 20th century occurred in the Himalayas.

The northeast Himalayan bend has experienced several large earthquakes of magnitude seven and above in the last 100 years. With a magnitude of 8.6, the August 15, 1950, earthquake on the Assam-Myanmar border is the largest continental event ever recorded.

The 2015 Gorkha earthquake, measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale, struck central Nepal and, despite being significantly smaller than the 1950 event, caused substantial losses to the hydropower sector. Nepal lost approximately 20 percent of its hydropower capacity, damaging about 30 projects with a combined capacity of 270 MW, primarily situated along steep river valleys.

Heavy siltation, resulting from massive landslides anticipated at project sites and in the headwater region following future earthquake-induced ground shaking, will diminish the lifespan of these dams. Even in the absence of earthquakes, the steep slopes of soft rocks are likely to collapse due to deforestation and road construction— activities expected to escalate as part of dam-building projects.

The northeast Himalayan bend, marked by deep gorges and numerous seismic sources, is deemed the least suitable area within the Himalayas for large dams. Additionally, studies indicate how the reservoirs, with their water load, may alter the strain field, thereby increasing the frequency of earthquakes.

The Himalayas are a transnational mountain chain and the chief driver of the Asian climate. Known as the Third Pole, it is a source of numerous river systems and glaciers. However, it is now threatened by degradation due to global warming. The ongoing low-level military confrontations between India and China have led to demands for further infrastructural expansion on both sides, much to the detriment of numerous biodiversity hotspots and livelihoods of indigenous people.

It is in the interest of the region to explore the possibility of a Himalayan River Commission involving all the headwater and downstream countries, rather than engaging in an unsustainable dam-building spree. India and China must seek ways of transforming this ‘roof of the world’ into a natural reserve for the sake of humanity. Carbon neutrality should not be at the expense of the environment.

(Views are personal)

C P Rajendran

Adjunct professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies; author of The Rumbling Earth: The Story of Indian Earthquakes

(cprajendran@gmail.com)

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