Four days of clashes with Pakistan exposed the faultlines in India’s foreign policy and diplomacy. None of India’s neighbours voiced support for Operation Sindoor; it had a public spat with the European Union; Russia remained largely indifferent, and alongside the Global South, refused to take sides. And after allowing for US mediation, we are now in a sullen mood and denial.
President Donald Trump, in his characteristic way, reacted to our split personality by promising to work with us “to see if, after a ‘thousand years’ (of Hindu-Muslim animosity), a solution can be arrived at concerning Kashmir”. Trump’s India-Pakistan hyphenation apart, our diplomacy vis-a-vis the US is crumbling. Our ‘middle class’ cannot be happy about it. The paradox is, we are squirming when Trump pays flattering tribute to PM’s “wisdom, and fortitude to fully know and understand that it was time to stop the current aggression”. Indeed, “aggression”—Trump’s choice of word—implied a vehement rejection of the raison d’être of Operation Sindoor.
On Monday, Trump tightened the screws further by disclosing he told India and Pakistan that if they didn’t stop fighting, “there won’t be any trade”. In his words: “We stopped a nuclear conflict. I think it would have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of people would have been killed. I also want to thank VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio for their work.”
This unsavoury happening is playing out against the backdrop of the government’s frenetic attempts during the previous 100 days to put India on a path of deeper alignment with the US. The attempts to pamper Trump’s ego, even while stomaching insults, give away unilaterally tangible economic benefits to US companies, get India more integrated with America’s military and tech ecosystems—none of this helped India. Consider the following.
Delhi moved heaven and earth to swing an early prime ministerial visit to the White House. And no sooner than the audience with Trump got over, Delhi began kowtowing with no sense of self-respect by taking back the illegal immigrants dumped on Indian soil in military planes in inhuman conditions. Instead, Delhi succumbed to bullying and offered tariff concessions on a range of goods including on agricultural products, as well as a review of policies and regulations affecting US tech companies. The government even committed itself to amend the nuclear liability and atomic energy regulations to generate lucrative business for the US vendors of reactors. India is gearing up to buy more US-produced oil, liquefied gas and defence equipment and systems. There is only one word to condemn all this—capitulation by a comprador ruling elite.
The impression drawn from the prime minister’s speech on Monday is that India is straining at the leash. He said at one point that India had only temporarily stalled the operations against Pakistan. He also rejected Trump’s notions of talks with Pakistan. He said, “If we engage Pakistan in talks, we will talk only about terrorism. No nuclear blackmail will be tolerated anymore.” These are defiant words that need to be juxtaposed with Trump’s version of the events and, indeed, the voice Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif tactfully adopted in his televised address to the nation.
Sharif harmonised with Trump’s words and stated that Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire for the sake of peace and security in the region, while also expressing hope that Islamabad and New Delhi would resolve all contentious issues, including Kashmir, at the negotiating table. Now, that is platinum-grade diplomacy—synchronising his watch with Trump’s and eschewing any temptation to do grandstanding.
The New York Times, citing White House sources, wrote about the important role of Vance and Rubio in reaching the ceasefire agreement, with a view to clear the air in Delhi made foul by spin masters. The Pakistani foreign ministry noted the constructive role of the US in resolving the crisis, while India’s ministry of external affairs, in a prickly mood, refuses to make any statement. What sort of diplomacy is this?
Again, our famous ‘multi-alignment’ doctrine simply became inoperable, out of sync with emergent geopolitical realities. The three big powers—the US, China and Russia—are in unison here, given the nuclear factor. And it works in Pakistan’s favour, as it is on friendly terms with all three.
As for China, it realises by now that Delhi is defining ‘normalcy’ in the downstream of disengagement in Ladakh in a very limited sense only. Simply put, the doors may be unlocked, but China cannot enter, as the political mood in Delhi remains very much hostile with bureaucratic and intelligence vigilance regarding China continuing to be intense. Thus, Beijing, which actually does not have a ‘controlling stake’ in Pakistan’s foreign and domestic policies, finds it expedient that Trump is acting as mediator.
The bottom line is, Pakistan has demonstrated its nuclear deterrent capability. It is as simple as that. If Operation Sindoor were to be repeated every now and then, it would only have the same results and be halted unceremoniously within 100 hours. Eventually, it will not only lose all novelty to our ecstatic TV audience, but a troubled nation may eventually start blaming an inept leadership.
Pakistan is a major military power. Creating potholes in an odd runway or rendering a radar dysfunctional temporarily will not intimidate that country. Succinctly put, it must be far better for India to take help from Trump, who harbours no animus against us, to solve the problem and move on with life.
Trump’s talks with Hamas and Iran are going well, and he has pacified the Houthis. Even the irascible protagonists in the Ukraine war are currying favour with him. Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are all set to meet on Thursday in Istanbul—a “neutral site”. Beijing is ecstatic that the trade talks in Geneva “will become a new example for China and the US to work hand in hand to inject more stability and positive energy into the world”.
This is the way of the world. We must stop fantasising over newer military doctrines every now and then. Pakistan is a keen observer and adept practitioner. As true as night follows day, Pakistan will soon have a workaround.
(MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. Views are personal.)
