In a reminder that dark irony isn’t all spent in Gaza, the fragile ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is now hanging on the dead. What’s testing the pause in hostilities that came into effect on October 10 is the pace of returning the mortal remains of Israeli hostages. Israel has accused Hamas of violating the agreement they signed at Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt.
Hamas had agreed to “release the remains of the deceased hostages in its possession and those in the possession of Palestinian factions in Gaza” and to share “all information obtained relating to any remaining deceased hostages” within 72 hours of the first phase of Israel Defense Forces’ withdrawal. So when Hamas released the remains of only four hostages on Monday, the families of the other hostages reacted with fury.
Israel retaliated swiftly, notifying the aid agencies it would allow only half the 600 trucks carrying humanitarian aid that were agreed under the Trump Plan and delay the reopening of the Rafah border crossing, Gaza’s only exit to the world.
With Egypt applying pressure on Hamas, five more bodies were returned; 19 bodies still remain in Gaza. But their release is expected to be long and arduous, as they are buried somewhere under an estimated 60 million tonnes of debris with tens of thousands of unexploded ordnances.
The recovery of the region will require extensive efforts and special equipment. Hamas has conveyed it “has fulfilled its commitment to the agreement by handing over all living Israeli prisoners in its custody, as well as the corpses it could access”.
The episode demonstrated Israel’s ability to punish Gaza at its choosing.
Hamas has been swiftly establishing its authority in the areas vacated by IDF. It has set up checkposts, engaged in subjugating rival factions including new militia groups armed and supported by Israel. It has also ‘executed’ Israeli ‘collaborators’. It has categorically stated that it would assume its role for “enhancing security and stability and protecting citizen’s rights”.
The resilience of Hamas and statements by some of its leadership that it will not disarm led to Trump declaring, “If they don’t, we will disarm them. And it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”
It is ironical that while the vanquished Hamas is in ascendance at least for now, the woes of the victorious Benjamin Netanyahu have just increased. The Tel Aviv District Court resumed Netanyahu’s trial on corruption charges on Wednesday morning, but the proceedings were cut short with the PM complaining of a cold.
It is likely that Netanyahu will no longer be able to postpone setting up a commission of inquiry into the catastrophic attack by Hamas in October 2023. On Wednesday, a three judge-panel of the High Court of Israel gave 30 days to the government to revert on the issue, citing “no real argument” against establishing the commission.
Meanwhile, elections in Israel do not seem imminent, with far-right parties in the coalition government deciding to stay on. But the government may collapse if the PM were to relent on issues such as disarming Hamas and withdrawal of IDF. Elections are due in about a year. The most recent survey, published last week, while showing widespread support for the ceasefire and hostage release, also indicated that it will boost Likud by only two seats. This would mean defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition if elections were to be held soon.
But Israel as a society has moved to the right since October 2023. Thus, notwithstanding its international isolation and Netanyahu refusing to take responsibility for the Hamas attack, the 75-year-old, longest-serving PM of Israel could still emerge winner.
As the ceasefire holds tenuously, significant differences between Israel and Hamas that were apparent in the two documents issued at the end of the Sharm el-Sheikh Summit.
The Joint Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity signed by US, Egypt, Qatar and Turkiye, the four guarantors of the ceasefire agreement, did not refer to a Palestinian State. As this issue is of fundamental importance to the participating Arab states, Egypt issued a host statement that was touted as the final communiqué to include the two-state solution. Further, the absence of the two parties most directly involved—Israel and Hamas—raised questions on the plan’s implementation.
Arab and Muslim states were also concerned that Netanyahu had amended the original plan that Trump had presented to them on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month, such as the timelines and positions of Israel’s phased withdrawal as well as diminishing the limited role of the Palestinian Authority.
(Views are personal)
R. Swaminathan
Former Ambassador of India to Egypt and former Permanent Representative of India to the Arab League.
The silver lining is that 27 participating countries, including India, with many represented at the highest levels at the summit, have endorsed the plan in person.
The Egyptian foreign minister, who arrived in Delhi on Thursday, has announced that a 15-member Gaza committee already vetted by Israel, Hamas and other Palestinian factions will take over the governance of Gaza. Nasser al-Kidwa, a former Palestine foreign minister and a nephew of Yasser Arafat, who was born in Gaza, is tipped to play an important role in it.
Next week, the US government is expected to present a resolution at the UN Security Council seeking mandate for a multinational force for Gaza. Egypt is also planning to invite countries to make financial commitments for rebuilding the enclave. Additionally, Trump is said to have spoken to some of the countries that attended the summit to be part of the Board of Peace that will oversee Gaza’s governance.
The most important aspect is for Trump to stay the course. The closeness of security as well as economic interests of the US and the Gulf states, on display recently, should help this.
R Swaminathan | Former Ambassador to Egypt and former Permanent Representative of India to the Arab League
(Views are personal)
