George RR Martin too might be intrigued by the Clash of the Kings underway in Andhra Pradesh. Thankfully, there is no violence but, the rest of it is just as riveting, surprising and suspenseful. None expected former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu to be jailed in the Skill Development Corporation scam. And, before one could even digest the news, the CID moved fast wielding the inner ring road alignment and AP Fibernet cases like a storm of swords leaving the veteran warhorse gasping for breath.
The entire discourse is now on whether the sections invoked against him stand legal scrutiny. We will leave that to the legal experts to battle it out in court. The most significant fallout of Naidu’s woes is on the TDP’s future. The party, since its inception, had been under the late NTR till 1995 when his son-in-law Naidu dethroned him. He has run the party without a challenger to speak of, to his leadership. He didn’t nurture an effective second-rung leadership either.
With him behind bars and a cloud of uncertainty hanging over his freedom, the TDP suddenly finds itself without a strong leader. Such is its plight that it is counting on the oratorical skills of actor and Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan to take the fight to the ruling YSRC. In the absence of spontaneous public sympathy, how does the TDP intend to face this evident existential crisis, too, with elections just seven months away? One can never discount Naidu, but the present circumstances are unprecedented. After the 2019 elections, he had tried his best to patch up with the BJP in vain.
The irony is that State BJP chief Purandeswari is none other than his wife Bhuvaneswari’s sister. Though their political history is riddled with differences, normally, one would have expected more than just lip sympathy. However, going by Purandeswari’s own words, she and the BJP state unit will abide by the party ‘high command,’ which has been maintaining a deafening silence.
Nara Lokesh, Naidu’s son, has been in Delhi for quite some time, holding consultations with senior advocates to get relief for his father in the Supreme Court. He has also been trying to mobilise support for his father in Delhi. Though leaders including Mamata Banerjee have condemned the manner of Naidu’s arrest, they have not been very vocal.
Sources informed this correspondent that Lokesh did try for an appointment with the BJP top brass, including Home Minister Amit Shah, only to be disappointed. There is an increasing belief, despite denials from BJP leaders, that the party could be shooting at Naidu from YSRC chief and Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s shoulders. In the absence of strong evidence, we cannot confirm for sure, but even TDP leaders appear to be coming round to the same view.
Naidu has always struck alliances to win elections and has won whenever he had a tie-up with the BJP. In 2019, his somersault towards Congress was a historic blunder. Now, who will Naidu align with in these difficult circumstances? Leaders whisper that the BJP is likely to seek 10-12 Lok Sabha seats and at least 50 Assembly seats for an electoral alliance.
That would be fatal, a few insiders informed on condition of anonymity, because, if BJP-Jana Sena walks away with a huge chunk, they are more than likely to lose most of the seats. Instead, they opined that an alliance with Jana Sena alone would be much better. It makes logical sense. Besides, given the BJP’s silence at this juncture, it is not Naidu’s friend in need. Nor can it be relied upon in the future — with cases piled on Naidu — and going by what it has done in other states.
The only alternative left for Naidu and his party is to once again shake hands with the Congress. It is indeed a great irony that the TDP, which was formed to essentially fight the Congress, may now have no other option but the grand old party.
It is reliably learnt that Lokesh has sought an appointment with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. Before his arrest, Naidu too is learnt to have spoken to Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister DK Shivakumar. But, it seems Rahul is in no hurry to play the saviour since Telangana matters more to his party. Any alliance with Naidu might not help in Telangana as we saw in the 2018 elections. But then, if the Congress believes Naidu’s arrest has generated sympathy in Telangana, things may change. It appears unlikely though.
That leaves Naidu without support from either of the two poles in national politics. The only way he can save his party is by galvanizing its cadre and quickly filling the gap in leadership. Lokesh doesn’t yet have it in him as he is still a leader in the making. Leaning heavily on Pawan may backfire anytime. One way or the other, we cannot but conclude that the Naidu era in TDP is coming to a close. The party needs to find a new leader. Lokesh’s wife Brahmani could keep the party flock together. Whether she, with adequate help from party leaders, will be able to deliver is not guaranteed. But that seems to be the only way forward.