When a prominent Indian Institute of Management wanted to establish a foreign campus during the 2004-05 period, there was stiff policy resistance with stereotype questions. Why India needs to export education when there is huge and uncatered homeland demand? In a strong and comical rebuttal, the then IIM Director asked why India should export textile when there are millions still naked? Welcome to the world of education as a global trade vehicle. The growing irrelevance of World Trade Organization and its collateral variants like GATT and GATS is certainly a watch-worthy development for global higher education with India being no exception. The ‘heads you win, tails I lose’ attitude of various negotiation rounds created global merchandise and trade turbulence. However, education wasn’t a significant agenda considering its least priority in the pecking order of WTO’s importance. Is it so now? Are their opportunities for India that it needs to leverage? These are questions dizzying policy makers in the light of Trump 2.0.
The flow of Indian talent to global higher education destination is unquestionably the largest in the world beating China recently in terms of growth. Nevertheless, the absolute number of over 1.5 million Indians places it in a significant number two position next to Chinese studying abroad. However, the number of Indians moving to the US has outnumbered the Chinese during 2023-24 period and the Big 4—US, Canada, Australia and UK—continue to be the most favoured destination for Indians wanting to study abroad. The other Big 3 is the most favoured disciplines of study being Maths and Computer Science, Engineering, Business and Management accounting for 80 per cent of students in these disciplines studying abroad. Looking inside, these are the three disciplines that are also abundantly found in India with over 6,000 engineering and 3,500 management institutions. It is not a quantity problem that is forcing Indians to move out but a quality and autonomy problem mixed with greener opportunities in the foreign landscape. The muted results of IT companies during the 2024-25 financial year and hiring being significantly impacted by AI and its derivate influencers add more to the mobility. Equally concerning is Trumponomics that is unsettling the status-quo in the American university and employment landscape.
The sweeping executive orders of President Trump with direct impact on immigration and visas for students and the growing discontent and dissent in so far as leading university citadels like Harvard and Princeton are concerned is creating global ripples. The anti-semitic activism and DEI-based enrolment seem to be the double-barelled gun that Trump wants to silence. Such a trend is not new for those who recall Ronald Reagan’s winning 1966 California Governor campaign to clean Berkeley of such activism. The affected universities may have a combined endowment exceeding $200 billion and can endure financial duress. But, the pressure on university leadership is from a possible flight of intellectual capital to other destinations and a highly possible delay in any form of judicial intervention. Another intriguing factor is the funding freeze for science and technology for the erroneous views of humanities is also creating an interdisciplinary fracas. Be that as it may, what can happen on the home ground in India?
The ‘footloose index’ measures the attractiveness of countries for talented immigrants and in the recent ranking of 135 countries, Indians and Chinese in the US would want to relocate to Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy or New Zealand (top five destinations). Parking this on one side, the pre-Trumpian fall in visa for Indians willing to study in the US along with a huge drop in interest to study in the US for a postgraduate degree (sharp fall of over 30 per cent) should be seen as an opportunity for Indian higher education institutions (HEIs). The policies to retain students in India for graduate studies must be aimed with long-term clarity and vision for Viksit Bharat @2047. The loss of America’s inbound Indian talent must be dominantly India’s gain and not some other country’s. The Indian gain must come from Indian HEIs and not foreign education institutions opening campuses in India. To make this happen, Indian HEIs must be enthused and encouraged to freely experiment progressive transformations free from regimental regulations as pointed out by the 2024-25 Economic Survey. There cannot be a time more appropriate than now for the NEP 2020 promised Higher Education Commission of India (HECI) and in the HECI’s new charter, the need for Nivasi Bharat requires more policy lubricants than Pravasi Bharat in so far as higher education is concerned. Is anyone listening.