If Prime Minister Narendra Modi is Mufasa, the Lion King, the state chief ministers are his loyal Simbas. As he embarks on his eight-week-long Vote Yatra of his kingdom, the BJP is expecting the state chief ministers to extend his aura. As the chief ministers are the second engine for the BJP in each state, the hauling capacity of each one of them will decide the final numbers. Of the 12 BJP chief ministers, the six from Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Assam will be leading their states in the Lok Sabha elections for the first time. Maharashtra will also go to the polls under the leadership of BJP ally Eknath Shinde. The seven states account for 158 seats. The BJP and its ally Shiv Sena won 142 from the states in 2019.
Undoubtedly, the prime minister is combatively canvassing for a record term propelled by his personality rather than his party; yet, he is monitoring the regional leaders, including the chief ministers chosen directly by him. While he is concentrating on his road shows and massively-attended public meetings coupled with a high-voltage media blitz, the mobilisation of the voters has been left to state units. All the chief ministers would be tested on three parameters—performance, connectivity and acceptability. Most of them are from the RSS and its student wing, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, and are expected to beat the double incumbency of the decade-old rule at the Centre and in their own states.
Maharashtra, with 48 seats, is top of the mind for BJP leaders. It is going to play a decisive role in Modi’s magic target of ‘400 paar abki baar’ for the NDA. In 2019, out of a total of 48 seats, the BJP won 23 and its ally Shiv Sena 18 seats under the leadership of first-time Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is now the deputy chief minister. Though it was more a mandate in favour of the prime minister, the local leadership fought as a cohesive team.
Now the state is led by the rebel Shiv Sena leader Shinde. An unforgiving leader by nature, Shinde, 60, is considered a lightweight when it comes to cadre management and grassroots workers. While the BJP is confident about its repeat performance, it is the Shiv Sena under Shinde which is causing headaches. Any fall in its tally of 18 will mount pressure on the BJP to gain more seats in other states. Shinde appears to be the slower part of the double-engine sarkar.
Madhya Pradesh, with 29 seats, is equally important for the prime minister to achieve his target of 370 seats for the BJP. The BJP won 28 of the 29 seats even while the Congress was in power in the state. But soon after winning the state election in December last year, Modi took a calculated risk by replacing old warhorse Shivraj Chouhan with the relatively less known Mohan Yadav, 58, as the state's 19th chief minister. The companionable, clean and affable OBC leader was chosen not because he is a Yadav, but because he wasn't part of any faction. Moreover, he keeps a low profile and has been carrying forward the Hindutva agenda with fierce determination. With the eclipse of the BJP's tall leaders and the Congress ailing, Yadav doesn't face any threat to his leadership and is better placed to convert Modi's mesmerising appeal into votes.
Gujarat, with 26 seats, is a diehard saffron state. The BJP has been in power for almost three decades. It delivered all the 26 seats to the BJP when Vijay Rupani was chief minister. Bhupinder Rajnikant Patel, 61, a civil engineer, has been the 17th chief minister since 2021. An unpretentious Patel has managed the state without any controversies either in the government or in the organisation. Gujarat and Modi are made for each other. Patel cannot afford to lose a single seat in a state which has given India its most powerful and popular prime minister.
Rajasthan, with 25 seats, is perhaps the weakest state for the BJP. During 2019, it won 24 seats in the name of Modi even while the wily Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot was ruling. But now the BJP has catapulted a first-time MLA, Bhajan Lal Sharma, 56, as the state's 14th chief minister. A former ABVP activist, the lacklustre Sharma hasn't shown any administrative or political skills so far. Though he has been provided with two experienced and relatively more popular deputy chief ministers, Sharma faces the uphill task of a strong Congress in the state. He hasn't led the party in any election. Nor has he held any significant party posts. While Modi may be able to move the voters in his favour by his charismatic posturing, Sharma will have to accelerate the speed of the premier engine.
Assam, with 14 seats, is the BJP's gateway to the Northeast. The BJP won nine seats in 2019. Now it is going to fight the elections under the leadership of a former Congressman. The belligerent Himanta Biswa Sarma, 55, the 15th chief minister since 2021, is the BJP's ace troubleshooter. His state may be small in numbers, but the BJP is heavily dependent on him for making and breaking opposition parties. By his deeds and words, he has turned out to be more ardently Hindu than the Hindutva party could have imagined. He has put in place many legislative measures which have taken away all special privileges of minority communities. He is at the forefront of pushing illegal immigrants out of the state and saffronising the entire Northeast.
Chhattisgarh, with 11 seats, is going to polls under the first-time chief minister Vishnu Deo Sai, 60, an approachable team leader. As the fourth chief minister of Chhattisgarh, Sai is the first tribal leader to lead the state. He is the most experienced political leader to be chosen to lead the state, having held various positions like Union minister, party president and even a state minister. Soon after taking over, he began with a bang by implementing various welfare and developmental schemes along with taking forward the Hindutva agenda. He is expected to deliver all the 11 seats as against the nine the party won in 2019.
Uttarakhand, with just five seats, is equally important for the BJP as it is also being led by a first-time chief minister. Pushkar Singh Dhami, a diminutive and soft-spoken former RSS worker, has acquired the image of a leader with a mission. Handpicked by the prime minister even after he lost the assembly elections, he is the first chief minister in the country to take legislative measures for the implementation of a Uniform Civil Code.
The prime minister doesn't need allies or aides to win his third term. Modi is the man, the prime medium, the message and the marketer. The chief ministers are merely his messengers.
Prabhu chawla
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
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