As in war, in politics too it is the victor who sets the tone of public discourse. The BJP beat 10 years of anti-incumbency to return to power in Haryana despite the narrow gap in vote share between the two national parties. In a sense, the BJP may well be mighty pleased that the exit polls got the Haryana verdict so wrong. It magnified their victory in Haryana on the political landscape.
The BJP, learning from the Lok Sabha results, executed the Haryana hat-trick with a blend of strategic and tactical moves, a combo of cadre mobilisation and social engineering. In contrast, Congress, it can be argued, has a PhD for cultivating hubris to lose elections. Political madness is repeating the same mistakes and expecting different results. The Congress’s defeat has altered the tone of the political discourse.
The essence of the victory is the return of optimism and faith in strategies and tactics. Although Maharashtra is a more muddled landscape of castes, parties and warring siblings, the Haryana hat-trick has triggered hope among the BJP cadre in Maharashtra. The question is whether the BJP can win the battle of perceptions and realities in a state where it was humbled in the Lok Sabha polls, where it trailed the minority shareholder of its alliance.
The answer depends on the arithmetic of politics. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi of Congress, Sharad Pawar NCP and Uddhav Thackeray Shiv Sena outwitted the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls by engineering a social coalition encompassing half the voting populace—Marathas, who account for around 30 percent, Dalits (12 percent) and Muslims (11 percent). The potency of this combination is manifest in the upsets in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls—specifically for Dhule, Beed, Amravati, Mumbai North West, Mumbai North Central and Hatkanangale.
Critical to the hustings is the politics of economics—the troika represents voters located at the base of the income pyramid hurting from inflation and unemployment. The quest for job quotas by Marathas symbolises an existential angst across rural Maharashtra. Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange claims the Maratha vote is decisive in 113 assembly constituencies. The grievance of farmers is about viability—from pricing of cotton in Vidarbha to soybean and onions in Lasalgaon and western Maharashtra.
The Maha Yuti coalition comprising the BJP, the Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar NCP is unfazed by the past and buoyed by the victory in Haryana. The regime led by Eknath Shinde has strived to cobble a social coalition of beneficiaries. The brew of decisions and promises is verily the alchemy of caste politics and Robinhood economics.
Topping the list is the X factor the Maha Yuti is betting on—the Majhi Ladki Bahin scheme of cash transfers of Rs 1,500 per month to women announced in August. The cost: estimated at Rs 46,000 crore. The scheme reaches over 22.2 million women voters in Maharashtra. Shinde has claimed that the amount could be raised to Rs 3,000 if the alliance returns to power. This week, the regime announced a cash allowance of Rs 50 per cow for desi cows—the allowance is said to be higher than the range of Rs 20-40 in the BJP-ruled states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
The parade of promises includes raising the salaries of madrasa teachers from Rs 6,000 to Rs 16,000 and from Rs 8,000 to Rs 18,000. Indeed, days after, even as BJP leader and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis coined the phraseology of “vote jihad”, Ajit Pawar declared that 10 percent of the seats would be reserved for minorities. In an effort to woo Dalit voters, the Maha Yuti government has promised an ordinance to grant constitutional status to the Maharashtra State Scheduled Caste Commission, set up welfare boards for communities and invest in tribal welfare boards.
There is apparently more in the pipeline—even as urban voters are being assuaged with new roads and airports. It is useful to consider the effect of this on the balance sheet of the state. Maharashtra is among the three most indebted states in India. The Economic Survey for the year reveals that the total debt to gross state domestic product share is at 17.6 percent, its outstanding debt is at Rs 7.11 lakh crore and interest payments accounted for Rs 48,578 crore in 2023-24.
While it seeks to disrupt the social coalition of the MVA the Maha Yuti is also at work to revive and consolidate the OBCs who accounts for 35 percent of the votes under the banner of the Madhava front of Malis, Dhangars and Vanjaras. As in Haryana the instrument for wooing OBC vote was upping the income limit for quota seekers. This week, Shinde announced a proposal to increase the income limit for ‘non-creamy layer' from Rs 8 lakh to Rs 15 lakh per year for OBCs seeking a seat under reservations.
Beyond the arithmetic of politics there is the quest for electoral chemistry. Arranging a social coalition in Maharashtra is as complex as getting the mix right in the delicately flavoured but delicious masala baath, a kind of long-grain-rice khichdi laced with spices, ghee and vegetables. It calls for leadership, chefs adept at blending the mix. The recipe depends on ingredients—seat sharing among alliance partners, allocation of seats and choice of candidates. The dish is in the making.
The Maha battle rests on hopes and promises—and it is only just unfolding.
Shankkar Aiyar
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar: A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)