Rarely in history has someone—personified in noun and verb forms —dominated public discourse like the current US president has. Donald J Trump has put the world on notice, threatening to upend the $24-trillion global trade market with reciprocal tariffs.
Global leaders are scurrying across capitals, markets are teetering—the S&P500 yo-yos between fears of inflation, stagflation and recession. The price of the much-ballyhooed Bitcoin slid to five digits and good old gold surged to a record $3,100.
The contours of action will only be known on April 2. What is clear is that ‘Liberation Day’, as Trump called his day of tariff action, presents the president the opportunity to present his world view: might is right and domination must be explicitly acknowledged.
What will he say? Here is a template, paraphrased from Julius Caesar, for contemplation.
Friends, frenemies and citizens of the MAGA world, this will be tremendous. I come not to mourn globalisation, but to bury it!
The good that globalisation delivered for decades is now being interred. ’Tis said that America evangelised globalisation. If that is true, it was a grievous flaw—and was righted in November. So what if the comportment enabled the US to be a $29.7-trillion economy?
Ambition and domination call for sterner stuff. The US is the superpower, but it has been conned for decades. We had stupid leaders. America defended Greenland, funded Ukraine and has provided a security umbrella to South Korea—whose average tariff is four times ours—and NATO. Our people want to withdraw from NATO—ask why America must bear the costs without returns.
But I am to speak of what I want you to believe. The word tariff is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary. (Duty-free slang imported from the Arabic ta’rif.) Other countries have used tariffs against us for decades, and now it’s our turn. Like it or not, we will use all tools including 50-year-old International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
Allies, what allies? What cause withholds and makes them mourn? The European Union was formed to spite the US and they’ve done a good job of it. Now they are ganging up with others. Canada and Mexico allow migrants and fentanyl to flow into America. Yes, we dismantled NAFTA in 2018, as it was the worst trade deal and recast it as USMCA for all to compete with the world. Are we reneging? We are being exploited, and as the largest economy, we can and will change our mind! The tariffs will result in tremendous growth in the US. Yes, Canada’s Mark Carney declared “the end of Canada-US ties”, but we are talking.
Look at ambitious China. We supported their entry into the World Trade Organization and they have taken advantage for decades. Their average tariff on our products is twice what we charge them. China is the leading source for fentanyl, followed by India! They have a dodgy track record on currency and intellectual property manipulations. But we are willing to work out a deal. I may give some discount if they part with the control of TikTok.
I speak not to disprove. They say the tariff policy is crafted from what Peter Navarro and Ken Lassman scripted across 31 pages in Project 2025. I may have nothing to do with it, but the project is an honourable document. It does quote my 2019 State of the Union speech, when I exhorted Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Act. Alas, it didn’t come to pass. The lessons of the Nixon, Reagan and Trump 2016 regimes tell us “personnel is policy”, that “bad personnel will mean bad trade policy”.
Here, under leave of MAGA supporters, I will usher better deals for America, for MAGA is an honourable cause. India charges our automobiles tariffs higher than 100 percent. We could have a good deal with India, which is one of the highest tariffing nations in the world—it’s brutal. They’re very smart and use many non-tariff barriers. Now they are promising a deal. We will see what happens.
America is back, but it seems many have lost their reason. They say tariffs are inflationary, and could cost households up to $2,000 extra a year. It is all fake news. As my deputy J D pointed out, “Anything that you lose on the tariff, from the perspective of the consumer, you gain in higher wages.” A CPA study says a 10 percent universal tariff on all imports, along with income tax cuts, would add $728 billion and 2.8 million additional jobs. The Atlantic Council says the 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts will bring production back to the United States.
O judgment! Thou art fled to brutish thoughts. Fake news is quoting Howard Lutnick saying a “recession is worth it”. Listen to Scott Bessant when he says markets are hooked, and the economy may need a “detox period”. They know markets and these are honourable men. I did say there may be some “disturbance” for American consumers. But I don’t see a recession at all, I see a boom period.
The template should give you the drift of what to expect. The playbook is being scripted on the go—reciprocal tariffs could be a foxtrot of threats and retreats, or a tango of deals. The world is pretty much flying blind as whims and worries define the depth of uncertainty.
Author of The Gated Republic, Aadhaar:
A Biometric History of India’s 12 Digit
Revolution, and Accidental India
(shankkar.aiyar@gmail.com)