Climate change and the development dilemma
India has slipped two more ranks on the Human Development Index, shows a fresh report released by the United Nations Development Programme. The ranking is for the year 2019, and hence does not take into account the situation after the pandemic. As per the data, our per capita income fell marginally from $6,829 in 2018 to $6,681 in 2019. This has been attributed to several factors.
One of those factors that stands out is climate change. Frequent natural disasters—such as cyclonic activity, urban flooding and droughts—have caused severe economic losses across the world. In peninsular India, the agricultural sector, public infrastructure and industries such as fisheries and tourism have taken multiple hits due to such disasters.
Globally speaking, these disasters and changes in climatic patterns have increased migration and thereby widened the income gap. As per the UN agency’s estimates, Africa is expected to experience a 10 per cent decline in rainfall by 2050, triggering a massive migration of people to other places. “New displacements in 2017 were 12 times larger than the previous year, reaching 8,99,000 people, and a million people were displaced in 2018 and in 2019,” notes the report.
Close to 14 million people are expected to be displaced globally every year, says the report, and the highest displacement will be witnessed in the South Asia region. The single-biggest cause for the displacement would be flooding.
This will result in a vicious cycle, experts say. More flooding will cause more migration. More migration will put more pressure on cities and urban agglomerations. More pressure will, in turn, result in more flooding in urban areas. This, coupled with stress on limited public infrastructure in countries like India, will result in higher levels of inequity in cities.
The crisis can be averted only if governments are able to plug the migration by ensuring development in rural areas and hinterlands. Access to quality education and healthcare, equitable public infrastructure and community participation must be considered while framing public policies to ensure that such a crisis is averted.