Testing times for Kerala in Covid fight
The numbers paint a scary picture of the Covid-19 spread in Kerala. The 13th most populous state currently stands seventh overall in terms of total confirmed cases and third in terms of active cases. It added one lakh new cases in the last 12 days and its daily increase in infections is one of the highest in India at the moment.
Moreover, while the rest of the nation is witnessing a downward trend, Kerala seems to have only entered its worst pandemic phase. Having said that, there’s another set of numbers that should be considered while assessing Kerala’s battle—the fatality and the case fatality ratio. Till Thursday, 1,089 deaths had been attributed to complications arising out of Covid in the state.
In comparison, Delhi and West Bengal, each with a case count that is similar to Kerala’s, have recorded close to 6,000 fatalities each. Kerala’s case fatality ratio of 0.34% is among the lowest in the country.
Given Kerala’s high population density (third among states) and the extent of urbanisation, a phase of rapid spread was expected. It was a question of when, not if.
The worry was about the fatalities, especially considering its high proportion of elderly population—13% are above the age of 60, while the national average is about 8%. By limiting fatalities, Kerala has registered success in at least one aspect of this long-drawn fight. Early preparedness, a better healthcare system and comparatively effective implementation of containment and treatment strategies seem to have come in handy.
However, the battle is not over yet and there’s no time to relax. Kerala’s testing strategy is still suspect. The test positivity rate that was hovering around the 10% mark a couple of weeks ago has gone up to 18%. The daily testing, after touching a high of 73,816 samples in early October, has dropped considerably, though the pace of infection has only quickened. The over-reliance on rapid antigen tests could undo Kerala’s gains. A substantial increase in active cases could test its healthcare system and lead to increased fatalities. At this critical juncture, it’s essential to ensure that the situation doesn’t slip out of control.