Diplomatic bustle building as Delhi is a stable counterweight
A surprising turn is taking place vis-avis India’s “role” on Afghanistan. Judge by New Delhi’s suddenly bustling diplomatic calendar: a secretive visit by CIA boss William Burns, and then, next on the roster: the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Only the Russians have been upfront about Afghanistan being the reason for their NSA Nikolai Patrushev’s rushed visit. Once its initial euphoria over the shambolic US withdrawal subsided, Moscow’s fear of a renewed outflow of terror, drugs and refugees to its territory and to neighbouring Central Asia has sharpened. Moscow has realised the new Talibs are not ready to take care of their interests or pipe dreams. And Pakistan is only nudging Kabul to make China the most favoured investor. Plus, Beijing held a meeting of the foreign ministers of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and of course Pakistan, where Russia was not even invited.
Clearly edged out of the latest edition of the Great Game, it took just a phone call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi to President Vladimir Putin for Russia to remember its ‘old friend’. We obviously retain our value even if we have been shut out of Afghanistan. Ironically, both the US and Russia had kept India out of the Doha process, ostensibly to keep Pakistan in good humour. Now, not just them, even West Asia seems keen to engage India. The overbearing presence of Pakistan, often suspected of double games, may actually be opening avenues for India, more thoroughbred, patient and stable in its approach. Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian will meet S Jaishankar at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, a New Delhi trip is expected thereafter. Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud would have just departed then. India’s unique capacity to balance its interests in diplomacy, and keep doors open on all sides, may yet give it a chance to counter a hostile China-Pakistan axis gaining strategic depth across the Khyber