Yangtse incursion is a precursor for more Chinese LAC pushes
The December 9 border clash near Yangtse in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector is not an ordinary skirmish. Given the details of what happened before dawn that day, it appears to be a premeditated operation by the Chinese, who apparently had drones in tow to record the ensuing clash. The incident comes days before the next round of talks to defuse the standoff between the two countries in Ladakh.
On the face of it, why the Chinese chose this particular spot is not difficult to explain. For the Chinese, it is a strategic area. They have eyed it since the standoff in 1986. Once the Chinese get control of Yangtse, they can eye Se La or Sela Pass and easily cut off Indian positions in Bum La and Tawang.
Once they control Yangtse, the Indian threat to their Li Camp subsides. The camp houses a battalion of the People’s Liberation Army. Seen in this light, the latest clash is by no means a minor one. It did not turn into a major fight but was defused locally because the Indian side took effective countermeasures immediately. They mobilised numbers in no time, forcing the Chinese to rethink their objectives if any. The sudden incursion can be explained as the Chinese way of testing Indian troop alertness, especially in severe winters. The Chinese may also be hinting that they will not stop with Ladakh and intervene at any of the myriad border points along the Line of Actual Control. During the next round of border talks, they may leverage one incursion against the other.
The incident could also have been prompted by the communist leadership’s dislike of the India-US Yudh Abhyas in Auli, Uttarakhand, close to the LAC. The presence of American troops so close to the border would not have been tolerable to the Chinese. They protested the joint exercise saying it was a “third-country interference in Sino-Indian relations”. The Americans, closely watching the situation, pointed out that the Chinese were amassing forces and “building military infrastructure along the so-called LAC”. The Pentagon went a step further, saying it sees a growing trend by China to be proactive in areas belonging to US allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific. Needless to say, the incursion leaves a message that Indian alertness cannot slacken at the border in the long winter and worse, India can expect incursions anywhere right up to Sikkim anytime.