Ill-timed Pelosi poke on the dragon in the eye
By becoming the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 25 years, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi poked the forever-insecure dragon in the eye, prompting it to schedule a series of war dances around the island it claims sovereignty over. Pelosi made the trip despite President Joe Biden telling her the US military thought it was not such a good idea. In a way, it showcased the maturity of democracy in the country where the President’s writ does not run on his party colleague even if it impairs his foreign policy objectives. When the time came for her to enter Taiwanese airspace, the US administration rallied around Pelosi by scrambling fighter jets to escort her safely in, as Chinese warplanes were simultaneously making aggressive manoeuvres in the vicinity.
That the US alone has the military muscle to make China hesitate to launch a war is a given. But Pelosi got her timing completely wrong. The Ukraine war has already messed up economies across the globe and left millions more starving than ever before. Under US pressure, China has not yet contributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine. If that changes in retaliation, it would accelerate Putin’s bombing of Ukraine into the stone age and drain Western coffers further. As for Xi Jinping, he cannot ignore Pelosi’s challenge since it would have a political cost at home as he prepares for a third term as Chinese President. The US has a weird One China policy that does not accept Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan but opposes Taipei’s independence. China is wary of the possible erosion of that US policy, determined as it is to annex Taiwan at an opportune moment. India is watching the showdown from the sidelines, looking for takeaways, locked in a face-off with the PLA in Ladakh.
So, why is Pelosi needling China now? She is a known critic of its pathetic human rights record, and Taiwan’s resistance to mainland bullying makes her a natural ally. There is already bipartisan support in the US for arming Taiwan. Is Pelosi using the trip as a prep for a Democrat presidential run in a couple of years since Biden already appears to be a lost cause?