Humongous mess in Sri Lanka and Pakistan
Ecology has given us a concept wonderfully applicable to geopolitics. Think of the war in Ukraine. And then think of Sri Lanka. The Rajapaksa regime has profusely thanked Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, who they were hosting for the BIMSTEC summit. New Delhi had recently extended a $1 billion line of credit to enable supply of essentials to Sri Lanka—things like oil, gas and food. Even paper for writing exams is in short supply.
Long queues have become a common sight in a cash- and commodity-starved country neck-deep in domestic and international debt. Foreign reserves have dwindled; imports—on which the Lankan economy rests—are badly hit; FDI flows are minuscule; tourism is still recovering from Covid. Tamil refugees from the northern part of the island have been streaming into Tamil Nadu. Kerala has closed its coast. To be fair, before the Rajapaksa brothers took over the reins as president and prime minister, the situation was already grim. It’s only become grimmer, with an IMF bailout becoming inevitable.
A mishandled economy, an arguably lopsided foreign policy, and internal political turmoil has similarly pushed the Imran Khan government to the brink. With very few friends, except perhaps China (now trying out a half-truce with India), Imran is clutching at straws. Throwing conspiracy theories at his supporters and praising India at political rallies, while staring at a no-confidence motion in Parliament—that should be a good enough index of chaos.
Imran, in short, is a burden for even the all-powerful Pakistani military establishment, which probably finds the idea of a replacement PM from the opposition a better bet. This of course behoves Pakistan’s hybrid democracy, where no elected (or engineered) civilian government lasts a full term. Will a new dispensation or fresh elections solve Pakistan’s problem? The answer is no. Well, you could ask the same question of some other neighbours as well.
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