Bypolls to test BJP’s growth plan sans allies
The assembly by-elections in seven seats across six states will test the Bharatiya Janata Party’s strategy of growing in the states at the cost of its allies. The party ruling at the Centre and in the largest number of states has been on a growth trajectory in the last four decades. Starting from two members in the Lok Sabha in the early Eighties, it has reached a comfortable majority with over 300 in the current Lok Sabha.
The first BJP government at the Centre had nearly two dozen allies. Most of them were regional parties that had grown on the strength of opposing the Congress party. As the BJP sought to present itself as a national alternative to the Congress, it found common ground with the parties opposing the Congress in these states. Eventually, the BJP came into conflict with its regional allies.
Tussles started over seat-sharing, and the regional parties soon realised that the BJP was growing in their states at their cost. As a result, all big regional parties that had initially helped the BJP come to power at the Centre have parted ways with it. Among these are the Telugu Desam Party, Akali Dal, Shiv Sena, Biju Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United), etc. The wheel has now come full circle in the current assembly by-elections. The BJP is now facing its former allies. In Bihar, it is pitted against its oldest socialist ally and Nitish Kumar’s new friend—the Rashtriya Janata Dal—in Gopalganj and Mokama constituencies.
The Gopalganj by-election is taking place due to the death of BJP’s sitting MLA. But with Nitish switching sides, the BJP is finding the going getting tough. In Odisha, the party is taking on its former ally, the Biju Janata Dal. In Maharashtra, it has decided to give a walkover to its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena. In Telangana, the Telugu Desam Party has withdrawn its candidate reportedly after talks with its old friend, the BJP. The TDP once held sway in the united Andhra Pradesh. But it has been pushed to the margins by two new regional outfits—the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi in Telangana.
Despite its inability to challenge the two new parties, the TDP has kept away from the BJP. The bypoll results will indicate whether or not the BJP should continue its policy of pushing out allies and going it alone.