Downpour hides rain shortfall, distress in farm operations
The downpour in the country’s northern regions creates havoc, damaging property and snuffing out lives. The cloudburst is also being misunderstood as making up for deficient rains over the last four to six weeks. Monsoon rains account for 70% of the total rainfall in the country and irrigate 60% of the sown area. It is, therefore, crucial that not only should the monsoons be plentiful, but they should come on time to aid sowing operations. Untimely rains, when crops are readying for harvesting, can be equally destructive. The deficit in the first spell of the monsoon has slowed kharif sowing operations by nearly 9%. Though the monsoon has picked up now, and sowing can extend to July 15–20, short-duration crops such as soya, maize, cotton, black gram and green gram are likely to be adversely affected. The potential fall in production, in turn, will fuel food inflation.
According to the weatherman, till June 30, India’s southern peninsula had a 45% rainfall deficit, central India 6%, and east and northeast India had an 18% deficit. Only the northwest was showing a surplus of 42%. Again, between June 1 and June 21, there was a 33% overall deficit in the country, with the shortfall in central and southern India being as high as 60%. In Telangana—where the rains are short by as much as 52%—the kharif transplantation is behind schedule by 30%. Significantly, earlier unseasonal rains in the April-June quarter hit rabi harvesting. This, in turn, squeezed purchasing power and pulled down sales of FMCG products in the beverages, personal care and confectionary range by nearly 5% compared to last year.
The takeaway is that the rain cycles are getting increasingly unpredictable, worsening the risk for the farmer. On July 4, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that El Niño conditions (warming of the Pacific Ocean that whips up heat waves and storms) had developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years and could lead to a further surge in heat and climatic disruption. For India, the IMD has warned El Niño conditions could develop during the middle of the monsoon season, affecting rainfall adversely. There is little that can be done in the short term. Long-term, tackling global warming, stocking up for possible drought conditions and developing alternative irrigation sources have to be taken up on a war footing.