BJP’s Andhra poser: Ally or not to ally
There is a flurry of political activity in Andhra Pradesh beginning with the meeting of TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu with Union Home Minister Amit Shah earlier this month, followed by the visits of the latter and BJP president J P Nadda to the state in quick succession. Now, the highly anticipated yatra of actor-turned-politician and the saffron party’s ally Pawan Kalyan has begun in earnest. Be it Amit Shah, Nadda or Pawan, all of them have been strident in their criticism of YSRC supremo and Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy—triggering speculation that the BJP and TDP might, after all, get together once again.
Adding grist to the rumour mills, Jagan, too, declared that he never needed, or needs, the BJP to win an election. TDP followers and sympathisers are understandably elated at the sequence of events for the simple reason that the party’s prospects would be brighter vis-à-vis the YSRC if the BJP and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena sail with it in 2024. Similarly, Pawan’s fans are optimistic, as is the star himself, because 2024 is as much an existential question as a matter of pride for the actor. He needs to at least enter the portals of the Assembly after having drawn a blank in the 2019 polls. With the TDP’s support, he can rest assured of a face-saving performance, if not a stellar one.
The moot question, though, is: What is in it for the BJP? It is a non-entity, much like the Congress in Andhra Pradesh. However, its great advantage lies in getting support from both the ruling YSRC and the TDP in Parliament without actually having a formal alliance with either. A section of the state BJP leaders is desperate for an encore with the TDP to get elected as legislators. There is no other way for them since the YSRC will, under no circumstances, have a formal tie-up with the BJP, given the ideological gap and voter base of the party.
Given this scenario, would the BJP central leadership, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has a good rapport with Jagan, let go of a trusted anti-Congress YSRC for a few Assembly seats? Besides, do they trust Naidu to stick with them should they fall short in 2024? There are options for the BJP. It could stay neutral and retain the support of the TDP and YSRC at the Centre or ally with the TDP and still retain the YSRC’s support. Nothing can be ruled out.