Challenge for BJP as CM Nitish gamble could lead to mandal redux
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has rolled the dice for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. By conducting a caste survey in the state and releasing the data collected, Nitish has made a move that is sure to trigger a chain reaction and have a long-term impact on India’s political landscape. The Bihar caste survey will have three immediate reactions. First, it will bring immense pressure on all political parties to conduct similar surveys in states where they are in power. There are reports that the Odisha and Karnataka governments may release their own caste survey reports.
Second, a demand for enumerating caste along with population in the next national census would be made. Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi has already raised such a demand. And third, a demand for raising the current 27 per cent quota for the Other Backward Classes is bound to be raised as the Bihar survey has found backward communities to be over 60 per cent of the population.
There is a sense of déjà vu about Nitish’s latest project. It has been brought under circumstances that are strikingly similar to those under which then prime minister VP Singh implemented the Mandal Commission report to give reservation in government jobs to the backward classes. His decision came at a time when the BJP had launched a nationwide campaign to ‘liberate’ the Ram Janmabhoomi at Ayodhya.
VP Singh’s unleashing of caste reservations dented the BJP’s pan-Hindu appeal and gave immense strength to caste-based regional parties, most of which were his allies. Nitish, too, has brought in the caste survey at a time when the BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has consolidated its vote base with its pan-Hindu plank of Hindutva. Besides identifying the most marginalised castes for more targeted upliftment schemes, the Bihar survey also has a political side. It has the potential to divide the BJP’s assiduously built Hindutva vote bank just like VP Singh’s Mandal did. The Bihar caste survey has all the potential to turn into Mandal Part 2.
The prime minister appears to have been working to face the eventuality. His government had set up the Rohini Commission for sub-categorisation of OBCs. The commission has also been asked to expand the OBC list by adding more castes. The commission’s report is ready for release. Social justice will be the war cry for the 2024 elections. It’s game on.