Scrimpy rainfall may upset Karnataka plans
A truant monsoon threatens to bring a spell of misfortune for the Siddaramaiah government, which in May powered into office riding on the back of its ‘five guarantee schemes’. A hot and dry August will likely hit agriculture and power generation. This could upset the calculations of the government, whose two primary schemes—Anna Bhagya (10 kg free rice per head of every BPL family) and Gruha Jyoti (free power up to 200 units)—largely depend on a steady monsoon. Karnataka, which records an average annual rainfall of 1,248 mm and is blessed with abundant rain in the Malnad and coastal regions, saw a 73% deficit this year.
It received just 58 mm of rainfall against an average of 211 mm in August, a peak monsoon month. It will impact the Kharif crop which is sown in July and needs good irrigation, and could also affect the Rabi crop later. Water levels in major reservoirs are at 78% of last year’s levels and are fast dropping; besides, the state is obliged to release a prescribed amount of water every month to Tamil Nadu.
Karnataka is also largely dependent on hydel power generation, besides thermal, solar and air resources. For the government to continue providing free power and expect no returns from most consumers, it should have ways of generating power cheaply. Otherwise, it may pay heavily to purchase power from the Central grid, upsetting its budgetary applecart.
A drought situation bodes ill for any government as it brings its repercussions—crop loss, which will mean compensation for farmers, rising food prices, high cost of power generation and low revenue. Karnataka already faces a resource crunch because of heavy payouts for its five populist schemes, estimated to cost the government Rs 52,000 crore annually. For now, development has been put firmly on the back burner.
September has brought the promise of rain and relief, and the government can only hope for adequate precipitation in the catchment areas and that the rain gods are merciful when the northeast monsoon (October to December) covers the state. Scientists say climate change has made monsoons more erratic and volatile. The rains are accompanied by heatwaves and extreme weather events like cyclones and landslides. The government, which may not have budgeted for an unpredictable monsoon, could be forced to raise revenue for its populist schemes through levies and taxes, making itself unpopular.