Ukraine graveyard of superpower play on war’s anniversary
When President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia’s strategic forces to go on high alert four days after he invaded Ukraine last year, there was massive global concern about the nuclear conflagration. A couple of months later, Russia kept up the tempo, warning that if the conflict snowballs, it could use its full arsenal, again alluding to tactical nuclear weapons. It led to strategic analysts gaming the possible targets Putin could have in mind for dropping his atom bombs and the likely NATO retaliation. By the year-end, he appeared sober, assuring of no nuclear first use. It eased the situation a tad but established a trend of Putin playing the nuclear card whenever he found his back to the wall. His latest announcement suspending participation in the New Start nuclear arms treaty with the US fell into the same pattern, but analysts reckon it wasn’t quite menacing.
After the dust finally settles, Putin would perhaps concede he had wholly misread the war’s trajectory. The Ukraine of 2014, when he grabbed Crimea in a month, was different from the nation he invaded on February 24 last year. It had grown some spine with former comedian Volodomyr Zelenskyy at the helm. And its armed forces were better trained, well led and highly motivated. The solid support Zelenskyy drew from the US and NATO allies kept the war machine well fed. But credit goes to Ukrainian soldiers for putting the Western weapons to deadly use, making Russian soldiers look like jokers and reducing hundreds of their armoured tanks to junk. One year later, even the Wagner group—fighting for Russia—with highly trained mercenaries on its payroll, is finding it difficult to capture puny Bakhmut in east Ukraine with limited strategic value. Putin also failed to create war fatigue within Ukraine and among its allies though he is grappling with it big time at home. US President Joe Biden’s secret visit to Kyiv added to the nation’s morale. Apart from human loss, Ukraine has become an infrastructure mess with waves of missiles demolishing structures, making it a graveyard of superpower ambitions. Its cost of rebuilding is now conservatively pegged at $450–550 billion.
Given the current situation, expecting peace in the short run would be foolhardy though a UN resolution has been lined up. Ultimately, it would be diplomacy rather than the barrel of the gun that would restore normalcy. But its time is yet to come.