Elections are theatre, full of sound and fury, signifying only one thing — power. Actors change the script by replacing the narrative. The plot thickens. Suspense ratchets up. Heroes become villains. Clowns become lead actors. Heroines with top billing flop. Last Monday, once the last line was delivered, the final blow struck and received, the villains decimated and the curtains came down, all that remained to be made was the final denouement. And it was made in a manner that conveyed the four pillars of the current democratic edifice.
BJP’s Triple Whammy Triumph
The triple whammy of Modi, Jai Sri Ram and BJP are the new symbols of national pride. BJP’s writ runs, alone and with allies, in 18 states. Unlike the Congress, its second tier leadership has risen as future force. Previously, the Vajpayee-Advani duo ran the party for over two decades with the latter rebuilding the outfit from scratch and creating a powerful succession line of which Modi was one. BJP is the new icon factory. Yogi Adityanath, who led it to an overwhelming record breaking second term, has joined the national vanguard. The saffron system has a clear advantage over the leadership-starved Opposition. Modi is a pan India mass commander with a singular vision of his own. And Yogi is a unique leader with a committed mass following, his mission imbued with customised colours. After Modi, he is the most sought after leader, adored not only by party cadres but even by non-partisan lower and middle class families who see him as a firm administrator.
In addition to Modi and Yogi, Amit Shah has established himself as the architect of a cohesive organisation and connector to the entire BJP rank and file. It is after a gap of almost two decades that the BJP has a strict general like Shah who moulds party men in line for keeping organisational deadlines. For the past seven years, no party worker, Union minister or state satrap could bask in luxurious social networking. In a constant state of ground alert, Shah keeps the party always in fighting mode. Work for the next election begins as soon as the results of the previous poll came in.
The fourth consecutive victory in UP (Lok Sabha and Assembly), India’s largest state, bolsters the troika’s infallibility within and outside BJP. The Modi wave swept the state in 2014, followed by an unprecedented Assembly triumph in 2017 and again in 2019 with 62 parliamentary seats. The final blow to its adversaries is delivered in 2022. Undoubtedly, the party has the largest number of MPs and MLAs. But with 1,340 MLAs out of national total of about 4,100 MLAs, the BJP has a long way to go to break the Congress’ record of 1980s. It decimated the Congress but hasn’t posted much remarkable success against regional parties in South, West and Bengal. As more and more powerful local leaders emerge, the BJP may find dislodging them difficult. Therefore, getting a Rajya Sabha majority sufficient enough to amend the Constitution for the implementation of many pending ideas is being hindered. Moreover, Mandate 2022 shouldn’t be seen as an indicator for 2024 since the general election would be fought on national issues. The outcome will also depend on the extent and nature of Opposition unity two years from now.
Busting the Gandhi myth, again
In the cracked mirror of a dysfunctional dynasty, the Gandhi Parivar has no beauty left to lose. Its century-old control of the Congress is crumbling. Gandhi scions are symbolically conspicuous by their glamorous but empty presence at election rallies and roadshows. They get eyeballs but not votes. Sonia Gandhi brought the Congress to power for two consecutive terms by forging alliances with other parties. Though she wasn’t a mass leader, she united both Congress and the Opposition. But her children cannot connect with the party or the voters. They don’t have their grandmother’s aura either. The Congress is the main Opposition in over a dozen states and the BJP’s rival in around 200 Lok Sabha constituencies. But it has been reduced to an idea whose expiry date is yet to come. Its performance has proved Vajpayee’s prophesy correct. Replying to no confidence motion in 1999, Vajpayee foretold that the Congress may be laughing at the BJP now but a day will come when the BJP will rule all of India and the nation will be laughing at the Congress’ fate. The Congress needs a new chehra (face), chaal (demeanour) and chalan (character). The Gandhis may claim ownership, but if the management isn’t handed over to credible and popular leaders, India will become Congress-mukt earlier than Modi anticipates.
Marginalisation of dynasty domination
Minimisation of the Maximum Dynasty is the larger lesson of the election results. Modi has been hammering at Parivarwad over the last seven years. The defeat of the Badal clan in Punjab signals the growing trend of voters rejecting family rule in North India. For the first time in his six-decade career, Prakash Singh Badal lost election. So did his designated successor and son Sukhbir Singh Badal. Akhilesh Yadav retained his political base only by breaking ranks with the bigger Yadav parivar. His survival is predominantly linked with Muslim-Yadav vote bank. He hasn’t been reduced to a cipher like Mayawati, who has now joined the ranks of leaders who rose nemesis-like on a caste wind but evaporated like the morning mist. In the South, Jagan Reddy and MK Stalin have carved out legitimate niches as regional alternatives whereas the BJP is not even a remote threat.
The Star to Watch
As the big boys played and family feudatories faded, an outlier leader has set the tone for an alternate national narrative. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP took Punjab by storm, winning three fourths of the 117 seats. For the first time, Punjab has almost wiped out the religious and political chasm between Sikhs and non-Sikhs by voting to power a party led by a Hindu leader from Delhi with hardly any roots in Punjab. Kejriwal has achieved what the BJP could or should have done but failed to do. For the second time, his decade-old party reduced national and regional parties to dust. His governance model was frustrated in Delhi because his Sarkar doesn’t enjoy the power of a fully fledged state. Now with Punjab governed by protégé Bhagwant Mann, Kejriwal has a chance to showcase his administrative architecture. AAP is India’s second largest party in terms of number of MLAs. Since Punjab voted for change, expect AAP to work overtime to deliver on its promises. If Udta Punjab changes into a state on the move from a failed state, Kejriwal could be a major challenger to Indraprastha’s throne in the long run.
Long term is quite long in terms of political distance. The current Assembly results may push all non-BJP parties to forge a feasible and credible formation tough enough to try checkmate Modi in 2024. Mamata Banerjee, KCR, Udhav Thackeray and MK Stalin are refashioning Opposition unity. Stalin’s Social Justice Front could offer an ideological alternative that ensures social and economic equality. As income inequalities grow, unemployment, inflation, lack of affordable healthcare and housing will become the major ballot issues. Modi and BJP will be forced to reengineer themselves to formulate better social welfare schemes. Personality driven politics has a shelf life. As Modi, the political alchemist continues to convert his charisma into electoral gold, the Opposition can dislodge him only by offering an alternative Modi better than him.
Prabhu chawla
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
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