Legacy is the fount of either pride or shame, determining the course of history according to conscience. The opportunism of conscience is the bane of politics as the Opposition harks to revive its legacy of “united they take a stand, and divided, they have fallen umpteen times.” The unity syndrome is back, so that the opposition players can find their feet again. For the past seven years, they have been in search of not just a slogan but also a leader who can give a fight to Prime Minister Narendra Mod’s mighty moxie. But they could find neither a common meeting ground nor agenda. Last week, Congress boss Sonia Gandhi brought them together, at least virtually with the objective of charting out the path to dislodge the BJP and Modi in 2024.
Though the Opposition parties have been taking on the government in Parliament, there has been very little coordination outside. It is for the first time that leaders of 19 political parties participated to kickstart a direct agitational plan at the ground level to target the central government. They refrained from dictating the nature and leadership of the movement. Nevertheless, Sonia’s charm offensive was the formal launch of Campaign Election 2024. Mamata Banerjee, Udhav Thackeray, MK Stalin, Hemant Soren, Sharad Pawar, Tejashwi Yadav, Sitaram Yachuri and Jayant Choudhary formed the galaxy of grit. The uniting parties were Congress, TMC, NCP, DMK, Shiv Sena, JMM, CPI, CPI(M), National Conference, RJD, AIUDF, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Loktantrik Janata Dal, JD(S), RLD, RSP, Kerala Congress (M), PDP and IUML. While AAP, TRS, AIADMK, BSP and BJD weren’t invited, Akhilesh Yadav chose to stay away for the time being. Sonia set the tone for the dialogue and the Congress clarified that it wasn’t seeking the leadership role.
“Ultimate goal is the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. We must plan systematically with the single-minded objective to give a government which believes in values of freedom movement and in the principles and provisions of our Constitution,” Sonia declared and assured that the Congress will not be “found wanting” in the endeavour. The Grand Old Party, now no so grand, opted to be one among equals and not the first. It has decided to participate in all Opposition protests.
Mrs G was invoking history’s victory by reanimating her 2004 political strategy when she had compromised with her worst political foes like Sharad Pawar. At that time, there was no visible threat to the BJP or an alternative to the charismatic Atal Behari Vajpayee. But Sonia was able to restore the Congress to a leading role after 13 years in the wilderness. Her coalition experiment yielded even better dividends in 2009 with her party winning over 200 seats. The BJP lost power in 2004 because of the desertion of regional allies due to the arrogance of a few top leaders who thought they would be able to score a victory sans allies. The Opposition parties are in a similar political scenario now with most of BJP’s long-term allies like the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal having left the NDA. Previously, TDP has broken away from the Modi constellation. The Congress is not looking for pickings in the North East and East, including Bengal and Bihar, and leaving the space to TMC and other regional outfits. The recent cross-over of Sushmita Dev from Congress to TMC indicates that Didi’s outfit will expand its base unhindered in the NE.
Sonia believes that these small states ride the coat tails of larger victories by shifting their loyalties to the party in power at the Centre. She has decided to acknowledge and accept the numero uno position of regional parties in Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra to defeat BJP and its allies. In return, their top leaders have accepted that without the Congress, even a symbolic fight against BJP would be a non-starter. They have conceded that Congress is in direct contest against BJP in 200 Lok Sabha seats. Even if it is able to collar 75 seats, the chances of forming an alternative government look feasible. Mamata had suggested including TRS and YSR Congress in the new front. “Forget who the leader is, let’s keep our personal interests aside,” she retorted when asked who would lead the Opposition in a fight against BJP. Previously, Didi, who is seen as one of the Opposition candidates for premiership, made it clear that “I am not a political astrologer. It depends on the situation, structure. I have no problem if someone else leads. When the matter is discussed, we can decide. I cannot impose.”
The Opposition is emboldened by the BJP’s recent electoral reverses in Bengal where it couldn’t trounce Trinamool Congress despite the mass deployment of money and muscle power along with Modi Magic. According to Opposition watchers, Modi’s detractors have been tracking his plummeting popularity over the past six years. Though opinion poll agencies have proliferated like mushrooms in the monsoon, the survey conducted by the India Today magazine for the past 40 years is considered the best anemometer to test which way the wind blows. Modi’s popular ratings have been riding the hills less and the valleys more. India Today has been conducting credible opinion polls since 1980 and most of its findings have proved correct.
According to its Mood of the Nation survey of January 2014, 47 per cent of the sample size voted Modi as the best candidate for Prime Minister against Rahul Gandhi’s 15 per cent. Five months later, Modi created history by taking BJP to a majority on its own. However during his five-year tenure, the India Today poll has shown a steady decline in NaMo’s popularity. In January 2020, only 34 per cent polled him as the best Prime Minister. Surprisingly, his endorsement shot up to 66 per cent in August when the pandemic was at its peak. Interestingly, Yogi Adityanath has surfaced as a candidate for the top post with barely 3 per cent supporters as against eight per cent for Rahul. However, according to the latest India Today poll, only 24 per cent people consider Modi as best suited for the Prime Minister’s post while Yogi has caught up with a 11 per cent popular rating. Mamata is nowhere in the picture. In contrast, Vajpayee enjoyed the support of 43 per cent of voters after his 13-month tenure as PM ended, and 47 per cent after his full second term from 1999 to 2004 got over. Even P V Narsimha Rao, whose five-year stint was marked by scandals and controversies, ended his term with 34 per cent approval.
Adverse psephological predictions against a PM and his party have positively impacted the psyche of the Opposition. This time, the Opposition is offering a collective leadership against One Man Rule which its define as dictatorial governance. They hope history has defected to their side. The TINA aspect had factored Indira Gandhi and Vajpayee. Yet, both were mauled by voters. So was Rajiv Gandhi who broke all records by winning almost 50 per cent of the national vote and over 400 Lok Sabha seats. 2024 will be the last political battle for the Gandhis and Modi. During the past seven years, Modi has immensely altered India’s political and social contours. He decimated the Congress with its political pedigree of over a century and other smaller ones.
Now, a defiant past is resurrecting from the catacombs of history, asserting its once-powerful legacy on the chessboard of power to checkmate the Saffron King. Whether this unity of minds will lead to the meeting of hearts on the battlefield only time will tell. But India is definitely on the threshold of change, with a better Opposition with a bitter past. Along the political Spice Route of national resistance, where saffron is a priceless currency, the caravans of the merchants of hope have begun to move against the monopoly of Modi.
prabhu chawla
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
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