The wheel of history’s hypothesis is turning again. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cartography of power replaces the Lutyen’s layout in the form of the Central Vista, his imprimatur will soon be visible again in the presiding heights of Raisina Hill. Yet, it doesn’t stop media barons, political pundits and emasculated political giants from agonising over the name of the new President to replace Ram Nath Kovind (unless he gets a surprise second term) who demits office next month. Though pretending to be part of the Presidential Nominee Search Committee, Delhi’s amateur procedural astrologers are fully aware that they are only going through motions for photo-ops and TV bytes. Their opinions and posturing will be consigned to the archives as usual. Just before a presidential term ends, these garrulous guesswork gurus meet and select a candidate since a consensus acceptable to both the ruling and the opposition parties is evasive.
But who scores? Only the PM’s first and final choice wins the sweepstakes — not even the ruling party’s speculative candidate. Since 1967, the President of The Indian Republic (POTIR) — has always been imposed by the PM, although the choice led to the breakup of the ruling Congress in 1969. The ideological colour of the next Commander in Chief of the Indian Defence Forces and India’s President will be decided none other than Modi. And it will be Modified saffron.
This Constitutional cycle completes its circle every five years. The POTIR power play is more than a fight to capture 330 acres of land and 340 rooms and lawns intersected by 2.5 km of corridors. The enigmatic Modi hasn’t dropped any hint about his choice, and instead has deputed Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and BJP president JP Nadda to engage with Opposition leaders to attempt a consensus. But the Opposition, whose rebuffed choice was Sharad Pawar, has been seeking names from the ruling party so that they could give their reaction. According to them, it is the PM’s prerogative to suggest the name. But both Singh and Nadda couldn’t disclose any of BJP’s choices. Nevertheless, Modi took the initiative of talking to two chief ministers, Naveen Patnaik and Jagan Mohan Reddy, whose marginal importance lies in legislative arithmetic.
In 2017, Modi sprang a last-moment surprise with Ram Nath Kovind, a Dalit from Uttar Pradesh and former Bihar governor, a choice definitely influenced by an upcoming Lok Sabha election in 2019. This time around, too, the fact that polls loom in 2024, is significant. Though, there is little doubt of a third consecutive victory for Modi — the second PM after Nehru — the BJP leadership loathes taking a gamble in case the numbers fall marginally short of an absolute majority. The President can play an important role in the appointment of the PM. For example, K R Naryanan declined to invite Atal Bihari Vajpayee even after seeing the list of the majority of MPs supporting him. Narayanan insisted on a separate written communication from Jayalalithaa.
This was in contrast to his predecessor Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma who had invited Vajpayee to form government as the leader of the single-largest party in the Lok Sabha. That the government fell after 15 days is another story. There are numerous examples of conflict between a relatively independent President and the PM. For example, Giani Zail, a known Indira Bhakt, became Rajiv Gandhi’s unexpected nightmare. Regarding an unlikely showdown between an elected head of the government and the head of state, no ruling party has ever reached a conclusion.
This is because the Opposition’s candidates have been staunchly and ideologically opposed to the PM’s choice. For example, the Opposition put up Justice H R Khanna against Zail Singh in 1982; Khanna had resigned from the Supreme Court during the Emergency after Indira Gandhi superseded him. Only Vajpayee, partially because of electoral compulsions and mostly due to conviction, reverted to an extinct practice of installing a reputed personality like A P J Kalam on the sandstone seat of Raisina Hill.
Sadly, in presidential lotto, consensus is a mirage. All parties have chosen confrontation while talking consensus. Since 1952, 13 of the 14 presidential elections were vicious fights between the Opposition and the ruling party, primarily due to the hard stance taken by the PM and his or her adversaries. The Prime Minister’s whistle-stopper won decisively on most occasions, except Indira’s nominee V V Giri who lost the first round but scraped through with the help of second preference votes. Indira continued her signature style of choosing non-entities for POTIR; Fakruddin Ali Ahmed was fielded in 1974; it was he who signed the Declaration of the Emergency without even asking for a formal Cabinet resolution.
After Indira returned in 1982, Zail Singh was chosen for his unquestionable loyalty. Sonia Gandhi followed her mother-in-law’s principle. In 2007, ignoring the claims of many senior leaders and scholars, she announced Pratibha Patil as UPA’s candidate — the only presidential selection where PM had no role. So, the current media speculations, debates and dialogues over the next resident of Raisina Hills are nothing but space fillers for the front pages and prime time. As the POTIR rundown approaches its final mark, Indians are flooded with unsolicited advice on the kind of President India needs at this juncture. But did the Gyanjeevis ever ask the Gandhis who gave the Republic presidents like Ahmed and Pratibha Patil?
Modi, like Indira, inevitably sets his own agenda and dictates the terms of political engagement, not just in India but also abroad. However, he does follow normal practice and convention by keeping caste, community, religious and regional considerations in mind. At the moment all three top constitutional posts of President, Vice President and Prime Minister are occupied by RSS Swayam Sewaks. Will Modi disturb the composition of this hierarchy? Undoubtedly, he will choose only a fully trusted and tested person as POTIR. But will his pick be influenced by a caste or a region? Of India’s 14 Presidents, more than half were either from the South or upper caste. Since the outgoing Prez is a Dalit, will Modi opt for second Dalit or a woman from the South is anyone’s guess. He has decided on unknown persons for important assignments like governors, ministers and high-ranking advisors. For example, the gubernatorial appointments of Arif Mohammed Khan, Jagdeep Dhankar and Ganeshi Lal were last-minute surprises, even to them. Innovative Modi believes in breaking troublesome traditions and rubrics. He has the numbers. So, India will get a 15th President, of Modi, by Modi and for Modi, united by the unanimity of ideas and ideology.
Prabhu Chawla
prabhuchawla@newindianexpress.com
Follow him on Twitter @PrabhuChawla