Coming of age: Ram and Bharat in 2024
To any astute aruspex who divines the mysteries of time, omens often send mixed signals. We can say 2023 was the Year of Antipodes—with political and religious confrontation, Centre-state standoffs, sports scandals, investigative agency intrusions and competitive welfare pitches scarring the narrative on one hand, and a buoyant stock market, booming entertainment industry, sporting triumphs and space leaps lacquering national pride on the other hand.
The dawning year looks ready to aggressively mimic the past. The first half augurs to be uglier than its predecessor's—more abusive and conflict-ridden, as India’s political parties go for the kill shot. Fakery and buffoonery will dominate timelines on X, Instagram, Facebook, Koo, LinkedIn etc, with a melee of sycophantic and toxic posts. TV channels will resemble wrestling rings where slander lands the blows instead of credible views and news. Political parties and corporates will deploy millions of social media handles to disseminate information and promote fandom. Deepfakes will malign and mangle contrarians and adversaries. The year ahead is predictively ominous with biffos and bigotry.
Here are the themes that will reverberate through the year.
Irreplaceable Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reputation of invincibility and reliability has been cemented in the recent state elections. His words are indubitably gospel truth for his groupies. ‘Modi ka guarantee’ is the BJP’s new password to posterity. Can the PM retain his unconquerable rizz for a 2024 sweep? His challenge is to score a hat-trick with an absolute majority for his party. He must not just retain the seats BJP won in 2019 but also add a few more from other states to compensate for the losses it may suffer in other states.
The entire year will be devoted to Modi’s amplification as a prime minister who delivers more than what he promises. His visage will stare at citizens from billboards and posters in every corner of the country. His presence will pervade the attention of voters physically, emotionally and electronically. He has spent more time away from Delhi than any of his predecessors to nurture the party spirit in all parts of the nation. The Modi cult is bigger than the BJP. Over the past decade, his picture has become omnipresent— he holds your gaze with steady charisma at all airports, 70,000-plus petrol pumps and innumerable bus stops. Over 880 railway stations will sport Modi selfie points to attract millions of train travellers. The Modi connect means direct communion—a yearlong choreographed chain of events spanning India’s cultural, religious, martial and historical spectrum. He doesn’t need to rediscover Bharat since he knows its multifarious facades well.
Yes, he has fulfilled his Hindutva agenda, but in 2024 he must deliver more development. The Modinomics of welfare schemes at public cost would get him votes, but can weaken long-term economic sustainability. He must speedily correct income inequality and skewed wealth distribution to erase any impression of encouraging capitalism. Modi’s only rival is Modi. In 2024, he is guaranteed to reconstruct himself as a Modi who is better than his best.
A reconciliatory global Bharat
Will India get its holy grail—a permanent UN Security Council seat? Can it be the leader of the Global South? Will it improve strained relations with its neighbours? Can it shed its American Ally image? With Modi tied up with directing poll strategy, it was left to foreign minister Jaishankar to meet Putin in Russia and signal India’s diplomatic equidistance to the watching world. Modi’s G20 gains must pervade all of 2024. India's role in the Gaza strife looked muted. For the PM’s personal relationships with world leaders to yield results, he will have to outplay a belligerent China and a hostile Pakistan.
During his third consecutive term, his focus will be more on boosting his Vishwaguru status in the second half of the year with a flurry of foreign visits. In his second term, Modi spent 240 days abroad visiting about 120 countries. Jaishankar earned diplomatic airmiles in 290 days, landing in fewer nations over the same period; his favourite destination is the US.
India has made substantial progress in leading the creation of another diplomatic pressure group against the US bloc. During 2023, the US-Russia deadlock over Ukraine prevented India from playing a dominant role in strategic diplomacy. However in 2024, India will sit at the global high table to influence all strategic, economic and diplomatic configurations.
An opposition on steroids
The seeds to harvest a credible political alternative to the BJP were sown in 2023. But in the end, ideological fissures and leadership competitions developed. The recent Congress defeats will compel all anti-Modi forces to forge an uneasy union. The Congress has been agonisingly humbled by its own inflated arrogance. It lost states it had governed. Now it is willing to treat others as equals and discuss seat allocations without preconditions.
While the regional biggies will stick to their turf and make few concessions, the Congress will predictably project Rahul Gandhi, the leader sans office, as its national beacon. His second trip, the Nyay yatra, begins early next month and will end before the Lok Sabha elections dates are announced. RaGa will cover 6,200 km, passing through 85 districts of 14 states. If the Bharat Jodo Yatra’s purpose was to magnify his visibility and connectivity, the new yatra aims to reburnish his bruised image after the recent Congress drubbing in three states. It is being billed as a political grassroots movement to try and neutralise the gigantic Ram Mandir Wave.
The opposition is hoping for a repeat of the 2004 results, when the immensely popular Vajpayee government lost the elections. With no single leader to lead an all-India campaign then, the Congress staged a comeback and hijacked the government. The architecture of opposition unity even without a leader or effective alternative slogan to 'India shining' demolished all psephological constructs. Sonia Gandhi stitched together ideological opponents and appointed a politically insignificant technocrat, Manmohan Singh, to run the country for a decade.
Come 2014, enter Modi—a person persecuted by the media and boycotted by elitists. He breaks a three-decade record by gaining a single-party majority for the BJP. The Congress will try to identify geographical islands where anti-BJP forces can catalyse possible victories to restrict BJP’s gains. In this combative year, India could get the cohesive opposition needed to keep democracy healthy.
Corporate Bharat blitz
India is the world’s fastest growing economy. Year 2024 is expected to end with 7 percent GDP growth. By all indications, international and domestic supply chain issues and inflationary pressures could stall incremental gains. With massive public investment and a surge in rural demand, some sectors may do better—aviation, health, entertainment, tourism and automobiles. GDP may experience 7.2 percent growth. But a corporate boom is a sure bet if Modi returns with a comfortable majority.
The Sensex may not reflect India’s actual financial health, but it indicates investor confidence. The Indian market is skewed, being controlled by a capitalist oligarchy which has put in place an algorithm of glitter and affluence. During the past 12 months, the Sensex jumped from 61,000 to 72,000. The market capitalisation of listed companies rose almost 30 percent—from around $3 trillion in January to around $4 trillion by end-December, which is more than India’s GDP.
Ramfication of Bharat
Politics has already been Modified over the past decade. Now comes the Ramfication of Bharatiya culture in 2024. On January 22 of 2024, the date for the installation of Ram Lalla in Ayodhya, the Sangh will paint the length and breadth of Bharat with images of Lord Ram along with Modi. For the next two months, BJP and RSS volunteers will visit 10 crore households to persuade them to celebrate a second Diwali on that date. The party expects the event to get maximum global attention and reverberate nationally as a raag of cultural renaissance. The opposition faces the painful challenge of choosing between faith and ideology. They are likely to lose the first round of the political perception match even before the first election nomination is filed.
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Republic of Bharat
Will India finally be renamed Bharat in 2024? The process began with a presidential invitation last year. Soon after, Modi invited his G20 guests as the Prime Minister of Bharat. Going by all indications, Bharat will cartographically replace India. All Indian missions are likely to be renamed High Commissions or Embassies of the Republic of Bharat. All central government departments, PSUs, banks etc are working on using ‘Bharat’ in their communications.
A decade of Modi Raj has tattooed his imprimatur on the Bharatiya century. As India’s identity leaves the shores of its conflicted past and sails towards the horizon of universal pre-eminence, Ramayana, Bharatayana and Modiayana will point the compass of its passage through Amritkaal.