Wars can create giants out of pygmies. In this month’s state election battles, small is big. As five of India’s 30 states go to polls, party strategies have changed—DIY is abbreviation for aggression. The focus has shifted from New Delhi to the state capitals, with the BJP abjuring the ‘double engine sarkar’ pitch, while the Gandhi parivar’s motto is ‘minimum is maximum’.
Reduced in scale are roadshows, pageantry and the fly-and-fire visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and prominent central ministers.Though BJP leaders and supporters are singing the usual paeans, showering encomiums on Modi and distributing Modi Guarantee as its manifesto, the high command has directed them to manage their own campaigns and ensure victory if they want their cigar. The Congress is in the same boat. Both national outfits have realised that uber-leadership alone isn’t enough—victory would depend on the decisive role of local satraps and issues. The answer lies in cracking the regional Rubik’s cube to get the blocks in alignment.
Rajasthan: Will it get a new CM?
Total seats 200: Congress 109, BJP 70
Among the five poll-bond states, Rajasthan has an unaltered historical precedent. Since 1980, it has never voted for a party consecutively. It is also one of the few states that have enjoyed maximum political stability because the Congress under Nehru and later Sonia hasn’t changed the state leadership frequently, like in many other Congress states. Starting with its first chief minister Heera Lal Shastri in 1949, Rajasthan has had 19 CMs who have governed without interruption. Ashok Gehlot has spent 15 years in office over four terms; he is seeking a fifth now. His traditional rival Vasundhara Raje Scindia from the BJP is the only woman CM of a state dominated by patriarchal traditions. After the late Bhairon Singh Shekhawat—a local stalwart with nationwide acceptability in his party—the BJP hasn’t found a home-grown replacement. Raje, whose association with Rajasthan is through her in-laws, captured the political space largely with personal charisma.
This time the warring parties have a common motif: neither has declared a CM candidate. Gehlot had refused the Congress president’s post because he is keen to remain a local Leviathan. He has survived massive internal revolts by dividing his opponents. His arch-rival Sachin Pilot has expanded his personal base and popularity among the youth. Interestingly, it is the first time that the Congress is offering two CM choices by keeping its options open: the 72-year-old Gehlot, an experienced OBC leader, or the 46-year-old Pilot, a young face with an impeccable track record and a potential national leader.
In contrast, the fact that the BJP is still looking for a face has confused its cadres. They have more faith in a tested and trusted neta like the septuagenarian Raje. Rajasthan could set the trend with a new CM. Caste has taken a backseat and so have the New Delhi moguls.
Madhya Pradesh: Heading for a cliffhanger
Total seats 230: BJP 128, Congress 98
Here, politics has been dominated by royalty and the upper classes for more than half a century. Since it was formed in 1956, MP has had 18 CMs. For the first three decades it was a Congress bastion, with 12 Congress CMs ruling over 34 years. Most of them were Brahmins or Thakurs. Two powerful Thakurs, Arjun Singh and Digvijay Singh, were CMs for more than one and a half decades, and half a dozen Brahmins such as Motilal Vora, Shyama Charan Shukla and Dwarka Prashad Mishra.
The BJP (as Janata Party) broke the Congress roll in 1977 with the Brahmin Kailash Chandra Joshi as CM. In 2003, the upper-caste domination was shattered by the BJP when OBC leader Uma Bharati became the state’s first woman chief minister. Since then, both parties have been playing the OBC card aggressively. The current incumbent Shivraj Singh Chouhan, 64, is the BJP’s third OBC chief minister in the state. The Congress has deployed the 77-year-old Kamal Nath, their man for all seasons and a formidable mobiliser, who is giving the BJP sleepless nights. He won a near-majority in 2018 but was toppled by the ambitious Jyotiraditya Scindia. Nath is on a rampage for revenge. His target is not the BJP but Scindia, whom he wants to decimate politically. The Congress’s victory depends on its success in Gwalior and Guna, where the Scindia parivar has retained some hold over voters.
The BJP lacking a CM candidate is a major advantage for the Congress. The Lotus Lords at the Centre are weary of Chouhan’s long tenure. It has fielded prominent ministers and MPs, raising doubts about Chouhan’s continuity as CM in case saffron bags Bhopal. Then Chouhan would claim the credit and bid for a bigger national role in party affairs. A Congress victory would clear the way for GenNext to take over. The frontrunner is none other than Jaivardhan Singh, Digvijay’s 37-year-old son. The Doon School and Columbia University educated man was the youngest cabinet minister in Kamal Nath’s ministry. He has a larger following in the party than his father.
Chhattisgarh: backwards vs forwards
Total seats 90: Congress 71, BJP 15
It is the one of India’s youngest states, carved out of Madhya Pradesh at the turn of the century. Currently under the Congress party led by Bhupesh Baghel—at 62, the youngest CM in all poll-bound states—the state has no other credible leader to take him on. The battle has been between the two national parties over the last two decades. The BJP governed the state for 15 years consecutively under Raman Singh. The Congress has been in power since 2018. This time, both parties have refrained from formally announcing their CM candidate.
The Congress’s choice is between OBC leader Baghel and and T S Singhdeo, deputy CM and former Maharaja of Surguja who enjoys a massive following in the tribal belt. The BJP has belatedly realised that the 71-year-old Raman Singh’s clout hasn’t totally vanished. He was sidelined for the past five years. But his party hasn’t developed an alternative leader of his stature. Known locally as Chawal Baba, he has been given a ticket but sans the assurance that he would be CM if the BJP wins.
On the other hand, Baghel and his party are better placed in terms of organisation and leadership. The electoral outcome will decide the endorsement or rejection of Baghel’s reign. Though the results will have little impact on the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, two consecutive losses will cripple the BJP’s prospects of winning the maximum Lok Sabha seats from Chhattisgarh.
Telangana: Congress on southern surge
Total seats 119: BRS 98, others 21
Here is a 10-year-old state heading for an unusual battle. Founded in 2014, the regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (rechristened Bharat Rashtra Samithi) emasculated its parent, the Congress. Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao aka KCR became its first CM in June 2014. He won a second term with a record number of seats in 2018. The fight now is between netas who started their careers either with the TDP or ABVP. KCR began his career in the Congress but acquired fame as a minister in TDP governments led by NT Rama Rao and Chandrababu Naidu.
The state Congress president Anumula Revanth Reddy was a frequent flyer who boarded the ABVP in his student days to transit through the TDP and land in the Congress. The Congress wasn’t even in the race till recently. But in the past few months, it has pulled many leaders away from the BRS and the BJP and could gain substantially, or even win the majority. It has corrected its historical mistake by informally co-opting Y S Sharmila, daughter of former CM YS Rajasekhara Reddy. Till recently, it looked like a close fight between the BJP and the BRS. However, in the absence of a local connect or ally, the BJP’s acquisitions and mergers mantra hasn’t yielded results. The Congress party went on the offensive to recover its space lost to KCR. The question of the day: is the Congress staging a Southern comeback?
ALSO RAED| Stop indira-isation of politics
These four state poll outcomes will shape and shake national politics. The Gandhi parivar will get the bouquets for Congress’s successes, while affirming the significance of local heavyweights like Baghel, Nath, Pilot and Gehlot. The Congress may be forced to democratise itself. For the BJP, successive defeats in three northern states would indicate an erosion of its local base and leadership, and signal that its powerful and popular national leadership is losing lustre. Retaining Madhya Pradesh and winning another state would definitely make BJP’s local leaders more powerful and change the New Delhi management template.
Either way, the backwash will define a new mandate to bulldoze the old architecture of governance and usher in fresh PIN codes in the political geography of the nation.