The ‘left-handed’ shake

All the debaters are unanimous that there won't be any change in the political equation in the state even if there is an electoral tie-up between CPM and the Congress.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi with CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury. (PTI file photo)

With the CPM party congress deciding to get off its strident anti-Congress stand and with Yechury’s political mantra gaining ascendancy, do you see political equations in Kerala changing dramatically in the 2019 Parliament elections?

A Raveendranath, Aranmula

Being the ground reality, what it is, there is no prospect of the LDF-UDF relationship mell

owing in the foreseeable future. In Kerala, the CPM's identity is bolstered mainly by its strident opposition to the Congress. And, the Congress is in a similar situation where the CPM for them is deviant and devil-incarnate. In Kerala's polarised polity, where the third party is nowhere near the shouting distance if the two fronts start breaking bread with, they will end up fighting the proverbial windmill. Ultimately this will result in the third party gaining ground. The conundrum is when the Congress-CPM nexus works out favourably for a party in one state, it may have just the quite opposite results in other states or regions. In the electoral politics of  Kerala, both the CPM and the Congress draw the energy for their sustenance on the anti-Congress and anti-CPM planks, respectively. Our political postmasters won't let those planks slip away so soon.

Best Debator: N K Vijayan, Kizhakkambalam

The Yechury line of politicking in the CPM may be good at the national level; not so in Kerala. As the Congress has often been on the other side of the fence in the state, even a mellowed stand of the CPM towards the Congress will dent the party's credibility. The common foe for both the fronts is the BJP and when two traditional foes close ranks to take on the bigger threat, both the parties admit their weak positions. As a result, the image of the BJP as a formidable party naturally works to its own advantage. The CPM has already burnt its fingers with its patent move to woo the Mani group (Kerala Congress M). All lofty ideals and ideologies propagated by the CPM have already withered. The marriage of convenience will dig the party’s grave in the state.

P Jayaraman, Kochi

The CPM party congress' recent decision to toe the line of least resistance by accepting an understanding, not an alliance with the Congress, was at best a face-saving formula. The only objective appeared to be to defeat the BJP at any cost in the 2019 Parliament elections. It is not clear whether they have any common policy or programme to place before the people. It is a well-known fact the CPM and the Congress are at loggerheads regarding economic policies. The common man will be waiting for an alternative policy and a plan of action of the Opposition before finalising the choice. Defeating the BJP by hook or crook is not good enough reason for the people to cast their votes for the Opposition. As regards Kerala, I do not anticipate any change in their policies as it might make both of them irrelevant.

Prof M K Thomas, Chengannur

When national parties function in India, they have to take pragmatic view of the wide political spectrum in the country with continental dimensions, huge population and diversity of religions, castes, cultures, and languages. Winnability being the ultimate aim of electoral politics, no party can take an inflexible, rigid strategy. When the UPA-II was steeped in corruption, the-then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh put the blame on 'coalition dharma.' The CPM's national tactics will have regional variants. In Kerala, it is bound to take the form of 'touch-me-not' against the Congress which proved to be as corrupt as the UPA-II. The CPM congress' political resolution will work out very well in Kerala in keeping the Congress at bay within the framework of the resolution.

Venu G S, Kollam

The CPM is now in a pathetic situation of sink or swim. After the trouncing in West Bengal and Tripura, a national party has now been pushed to a tiny land that accounts for hardly 3% of the country’s population. Now, the party's leadership has decided to keep the doors open for an electoral understanding with the Congress without having a political alliance with it. Yechury’s political line, which had faced opposition earlier, is now getting acceptance. However, in Kerala where the political context is entirely different, such an ‘understanding’ will neither work out nor get acceptance. There the CPM faces the Congress as its main rival, so any kind of political understanding between the CPM and the Congress in Kerala is out of the question. Such an understanding will shatter the trust of the party supporters and it will badly impact the party’s prospects in the 2019 Parliament elections.

O B Nair, Poonithura

Although an understanding has been reached at the recently concluded CPM party congress to form a united Left front accepting an understanding with the Congress against the BJP, its effect in Kerala is unlikely to create any difference. A similar arrangement was tried at the national level earlier, though it made no political difference in Kerala. Kerala has got its own specific style of political configuration and demographic identity. All major religions in Kerala have almost the same strength and as such no political outfit can claim any advantage. In the state election, the major participants are the UDF and the LDF. The third front of the BJP is unlikely to obtain a majority in Kerala, negating a scenario of the UDF and the LDF jointly opposing the BJP. The Congress and Communist fronts had been on the opposite sides ever since the formation of the state and the political configuration is unlikely to change in the 2019 Parliament polls.

Suresh Nellikode, North Paravur

As long as the BJP is not the pet peeve of the CPM in Kerala in elections, I do not think the equations in Kerala will change. One of the main reasons why Kerala faction of the CPM stands against Yechury's political move is, by and large, remains preferential in favour of the throne in Kerala, compared to the impossibility of forming a government at the Centre with the Congress. Kerala leaders are concerned and bothered about their party's enthronement in Kerala, no matter what happens on a national level, and that's contrary to Yechury's responsibility as a party general secretary. Kerala guys are well aware that the CPM is not big enough to challenge the size of the BJP at the Centre. Kerala CPM is more of like to be known as a BJP-lion-hunter who doesn't regret even if the lion escapes the bullet but should hit the cross-running Congress deer!

Eappen Elias, T'Puram

The CPM party congress and Sitaram Yechury say there will be an electoral alliance with the Congress and other political parties depending on the political conditions of each state. I don’t think this will be applicable as far as Kerala political geography is concerned. Here there are 20 Parliament seats and the main contest is between the Congress and the CPM. Here both the parties will play with communal politics in 2019 elections. Other than Kerala, as usual, the CPM will tactically make electoral alliances with other regional parties and try to unite secular forces together to fight against the BJP. In the present scenario, the CPM is not in a position to defeat the BJP-led NDA in Northern states and we have seen the defeat of the CPM in Tripura. The CPM itself is not a political force in other states and an alliance with the Congress in 2019 elections may help it increase the vote share but not the seats.

Asokakumar, Thrikkunnapuzha

A majority of the CPM cadre in Kerala will not compromise on the present attitudinal change of Communist parties' higher-ups, to have an alliance with the Congress. The rank and file of the party and all the ground-level workers see Congress as their arch enemy. As it is their mindset, no leader from the top can alter that. So it is unthinkable for a Congress-Communist alliance in the coming Parliament elections. Even if an alliance is stitched, that will not yield the desired result and it will help the BJP garner a few more seats.

Sundaram Govind, Aluva

Since the CPM has taken a decision to align with the Congress to defeat the BJP in the national politics, the Kerala unit of the party will find it difficult to fight the election in Kerala where the Congress is its chief enemy. Still if they continue with the present policy, it is the BJP which is stand to gain. Secularism and appeasement of the minorities are the key factors for success in the election in Kerala. The minorities will repose confidence in the Congress than the CPM which has no strength in other states. This will lead to a triangular fight.

Sharadchandran S, Mundakayam

There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The Left parties and the Congress are same in terms of their vision and mission. But in Kerala, they are out and out different and they stand as LDF (Left) and UDF(Congress). CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury has always shown his love for secular parties in which the Congress also do come to defeat BJP-RSS combine at the Centre in 2019 Parliament elections. Defeating the BJP/RSS will not be an easy affair for the Congress and the Left because of the Prime Minister's charisma and the BJP will not mind if all secular parties come together to defeat it. In Kerala, if the BJP improves its vote share or opens an account in the Parliament elections, then both the fronts will try to unite themselves to stop the BJP surge.

Vikas Naron, Thalaserry

Friends at the Centre and foes in the state has been the political 'tantra' followed by the CPM and the Congress for the past many years. The successful UPA-I and UPA-II experiments, that ruled this country for 10 years, is the outcome of this 'marriage of convenience.' The innate anti-Congress and the anti-Marxist mindset of the followers of these two parties is the main stumbling block in their way for an all-out open alignment in the state. Going against the feelings of the followers at the grassroots level, for the time being, may destroy the foundations of these secular giants. At the leadership level, with the blessings of the high commands, the alignment is strong but at the grassroots level, it is yet to materialise. Though the animosity among the followers is waning down it will take some more time to acclimatise. So, an open coming together in the upcoming 2019 election, is a far cry.

Elizabeth Koshy, Pathanamthitta

My enemy’s enemy is my friend seems to be the logic behind the CPM falling in line with Yechury on the issue of aligning with the Congress to fight the BJP. The CPM being almost redundant in India, choices in forging political alliances with like-minded parties are bleak. The ‘stiff-necked’ Kerala faction will find it tough to ally with local archrivals, the Congress, whom they had routed in the last Assembly elections by heaping allegations of the worst kind. Under normal circumstances, such an alliance would have been unthinkable but in politics, there are no permanent enemies. It is all a matter of convenience. Moreover, with the LDF popularity taking a nosedive, one can definitely expect new equations which will include ‘secular’ parties of Kerala, in the 2019 polls if the Left parties have to survive.