CHENNAI: There is a familiar joke about rain, summer and the cricket season in England. "Summer," it goes, "begins when the rain starts." Cricket is the country's summer sport with a bit of tennis on the side. But millions of TV viewers would be familiar with partially covered cricket grounds, fully covered tennis courts at Wimbledon and dark, angry skies.
This year, though, that may not happen. At least not right now and almost definitely not for the first Test of the five-match India - England series. When the two captains walk out for the toss at Leeds on Friday morning, do not be surprised if you see abundant sunshine.
For England is now experiencing one of its driest springs in over 125 years. It's been so bad that Yorkshire (the county where Leeds is situated) has officially entered a drought. A water company has even given tips on how to conserve water. Local authorities are mulling a ban on hosepipe if the region stays dry for the next few weeks.
To add to the residents' woes, there is now a yellow heat warning in place for most of England, including Leeds, with temperatures predicted to hit 30*c sometime during the course of the first Test. The visitors, who have only played two Tests at Leeds this century (one innings defeat, one victory by an innings), could of course be mindful of this fact going into the Test. With not a lot of rain and abundant sunshine expected for at least part of the game, those are ideal conditions for the strip to lose its moisture.
Going by preliminary images from the famous old Stadium, there's not a lot of difference between the playing strip and the outfield. But that's to be expected three days out. The grass will receive a couple of substantial haircuts over the next few days.
Leeds, like several other grounds outside Asia, does favour the pacers to begin but becomes flatter as the match wears on. The last four innings totals here are 263 (from 4/85), 329 (from 4/83), 78 and 179. Unsurprisingly, all four first innings totals ended in losses as this ground is now increasingly recognised as batter to bat on later. England chased 251 in 2023, they chased 296 in 2022, they made 432 and India replied with 276 after their 78 but that wasn't enough to make the hosts bat again in 2021. In 2019, there was of course that chase of 359 against Australia.
All of this means both teams faces a substantial decision even before the first ball. Recency bias suggests the team bowling first have a bigger chance of winning the Test (each of the last four Tests here was won by the side bowling first).
But the conditions weren't as dry. If the strip is expected to dry out quicker, conventional wisdom states it may bring the spinners into play in the third and fourth innings. Could that tempt the visitors to go in two frontline spinners or play Washington Sundar in place of a seaming all-rounder? Will they opt to bat first if the coin falls in their favour?
These are some of the big decisions they will be thinking through over the next couple of days.