CHENNAI: One of the underlying themes of the Indian Premier League has been express fast bowlers. So, it’s apt that Mumbai Indians face Delhi Capitals in the final at Dubai on Tuesday. The two sides’ lead pacers (Trent Boult, Jasprit Bumrah, Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje), between them, have accounted for 98 wickets at an average of 18.42.
Why have they been successful this season? While Boult and Bumrah haven’t been afraid to bowl Test match length in the power play — the former’s reward is 14 wickets in the first six overs —to extract the small movement off the pitch on offer, Rabada and Nortje have relied on brute pace and variations at the death to outfox batsmen. Even if it’s a simple strategy, these four are so highly skilled that it’s inevitable they will be among the wickets column under the Dubai lights.
Ergo, the top-order that successfully negotiates this threat will be in the ascendancy. Which team is better equipped to do that? Here’s two factors to consider.
The first is the sheer mountain of runs scored by Rohit Sharma’s men. Even if he himself will not be winning any batting awards — six of his 11 innings have been single-digit scores — Quinton de Kock, Suryakumar Yadav and Ishan Kishan have been the three unstoppable forces in the Mumbai line-up. All of them have got over 450 runs, with strike rates above 140 and are adept at piercing the field at will. They are so difficult to bowl against because of the proportion of runs they get in boundaries. Sample this: Kishan is the leading six-hitter (29), Suryakumar is number two for fours (60) and De Kock is one of only two batsmen (KL Rahul is the other) to hit at least 40 4s and 20 6s. That’s even before you remember they have Hardik Pandya and Kieron Pollard, arguably two of the best finishers in the format, in the lower-middle order.
One only needs to remember the carnage in the first qualifier to know what they can do to the Delhi bowlers. Rohit went early but the others stood tall to set a target in excess of 200. Delhi will likely use R Ashwin again to open the bowling but they will need both Rabada and Nortje to break the spine of the Mumbai top-order early on. If they fail to do that, the organisers can start engraving ‘Mumbai Indians’ on the trophy during the match.
The second factor, the one that might make the final a bum clencher, is Marcus Stoinis and Shikhar Dhawan. The southpaw’s recent scores indicate that he is a bellwether for Delhi. In the last six matches, every time he has been dismissed for a single digit score, they have lost (four). Whenever he hits a 50, they have won (two). If he survives those early questions, Delhi will quietly start believing.
Even if Mumbai will expect Stoinis to open, the Australian can still catch their premier bowlers off guard. Boult’s trade off for bowling pitched up deliveries is being hit for boundaries. He has conceded more than 55 boundaries and has proved to be expensive if he goes wicketless in his first spell. If Stoinis can get at Boult the same way he attacked Jason Holder on Sunday, that’s an immediate transfer of pressure.
The one thing that the Mumbai bowlers haven’t done well this season is when the top-order has counter-attacked. Think of Faf du Plessis and Ambati Rayudu in the opening game, Devdutt Padikkal and Aaron Finch in the third game, Ben Stokes and Sanju Samson in the 11th game and David Warner and Wriddhiman Saha in their last league match.
And for Delhi to have any chance, their top-order has to ape one of those above-mentioned partnerships. If they fail to that, Mumbai will paint the desert Blue.