SINGAPORE: When pollsters aren't able to predict the election winner after taking into account the margin of error, they use the phrase 'too close to call'. This World Championship between Ding Liren and D Gukesh feels like that. Even after the world champion won the first game of the 14-match series, it felt like the Indian had enough in the tank to come back. He showed his on-the-board chops as he won game three.
Liren had some chances in the first half of the series but the Indian managed to find his mojo. Soon enough, he was bound to convert a chance. He did that with White pieces in game 11. It was decisive for two reasons. He now had the sole lead but it also meant the Chinese 32-year-old had to come out and force the initiative, something he didn't have the appetite for. Or so that was the working assumption.
On Monday, he produced a masterclass to win his first game with White pieces. The final is now tied 6-6 with two Classical games remaining. Whatever happens on Wednesday, there will be a final game with the standard time control with the potential of tie-breaks, if necessary, on Thursday.
Why does it feel too close to call? Is Liren back to his best? How does Gukesh, still only 18, react to this challenge? Is there potential for fireworks in the next two games or will both players play safety-first chess and accept tie-breaks. Some of these questions will likely dominate the build up between now and when Gukesh starts game 13 at 5.00 PM on Wednesday (2.30 PM IST). A look at some of these questions.
No clear favourites
Among all sporting intangibles, momentum shifts are the closest to being felt. If the Indian had the ascendancy after game 11, it now feels like Liren's final to lose. He played a flawless game from start to finish. However, he was forced into a corner and had no choice but to play a daring line. With the scores now level, there's every chance he retreats. Even otherwise, Gukesh has shown he can push and has engineered chances with both White and Black. Both players have displayed vulnerabilities on the board as they have also made serious miscalculations concerning their positions. They could have similar doubts in the last two games.
The one remaining Gukesh White game
The Indian and the Chinese have agreed on one thing. The former has had the upper hand out of the Openings in most games. This much is true, especially when the Indian has had White pieces. In game 11, he took the 32-year-old off-guard with a new-ish idea. His team may have one final grand idea prepped for this scenario — scores level, one last game with White to take the lead — so do not be surprised if the teen plays a novelty and forces Liren to spend a lot of time. The other reason why game 13 feels more decisive than game 14? Whenever Liren has had White (sans Monday), games have generally been boring after a point.
Mental state of both players
One can only speculate here. The 18-year-old wasn't overly thrilled on Sunday. Similarly, he wasn't pessimistic on Monday. Likewise, his opponent. At several points in this match, Liren has been happy to take the draw because he didn't know he had an edge in the positions. Would he repeat that in the next two games? Chances are he will play proactively only if he knows he enjoys a significant advantage. However, this is a happier, fresher Ding. Gukesh may only be a teen but he has shown that losses doesn't necessarily affect him. At the Candidates earlier this year, he suffered a potentially tournament-ending loss to Fabiano Caruana. He dusted himself and went on to win the tournament. On speed dial, he also has Paddy Upton, a South African who has experience working with Indian stars after a setback.
Fireworks or boring chess
Gukesh will push, especially with White on Wednesday. He will come in with a clear game plan of creating an imbalance for Black. He will, however, want to simplify the game for White because if he loses on Wednesday with White, there's no clear path to a win for him with Black on Thursday. Liren will likely aim to play the shortest World Championship game in history when they come back after the rest day.
Tie-breaks
In one of the press conferences, Gukesh dismissed the notion of Liren being a favourite in the shorter time controls but it's hard to dispel it. It's a bit like going from Tests to ODIs/T20s and Liren does have an edge, at least according to the ratings. He also has the advantage of having experienced a tie-break in the final (he beat Ian Nepomniachtchi via this route in 2023). Because Gukesh is a calculator, he's much better when there's time on the clock. Liren is also a calculator but can blitz when it's time to beat the clock. The one caveat to this? Gukesh doesn't play a lot of Rapid and Blitz so his ratings may not be reflective of his true rankings.
Gukesh will play with White on Wednesday at 5.00 PM Singapore (2.30 PM IST)