YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, the man occupying Lotus Pond Residence: Faces internal problems, lack of coordination among key cadre at the ground level, missing euphoria over his release from jail and importantly, the big question over his anti-Congress/Sonia position — the foundation on which he built his edifice.
N Chandrababu Naidu, Road 65, Jubilee Hills: Ahead of the do or die battle in 2014, the two-time CM can take solace from signs of an upswing but needs to build greater support. Tie-up with Modi-led BJP might help turn the tide but the extent of his gains from the alliance will depend on whether the State remains united or divided by election time.
As you travel along the districts fed by the twin rivers of Krishna and Godavari, the only aspect that is crystal clear is there is no wave in favour of either the TDP or YSRC, with the Congress, in any case, reduced to being an also-ran. From one constituency to another, voter loyalty too is changing depending on the candidate, strength of the party and other local dynamics.
Interestingly, none of these two parties are gaining from whatever stand they have taken on the issue of division, whether it is Jagan’s demand that the State be kept united or Naidu’s that equal justice be done to all regions.
Just as the ‘breaking news’ of bail to Jagan Mohan Reddy was being flashed on TV screens, we were at a coffee centre in the heart of Tenali town in Guntur district.
There were about half-a-dozen people sipping tea or coffee. They watched the news and quietly, walked away. In the two days that followed, there was no evidence of extreme jubilation, either in the form of rallies, posters or banners, over the release of Jagan — barring one motorcycle rally in Narsapur town and a couple of flexis that came up on the outskirts of Vijayawada city.
However, in the midst of the ongoing agitation against division of Andhra Pradesh, Jagan’s release after 16 months in jail became a subject of animated discussion in almost all protest camps - some arguing in his favour and others against.
Ramesh, a seasoned political observer in Narsapur town, gave me this insight: “Rahul Gandhi can never emerge as a good leader as long as he works under the shadow of his mother, Sonia. Likewise, Jagan emerged a hero when he took on the might of the dynasty. But, if people sense that he left the keys of Lotus Pond at 10, Janpath, to secure bail, their perception is bound to change.” And, he is not the only one who talked about it, whether on account of the theory being circulated by rival parties or from their own reading of the situation.
Of course, you also find an equal number expressing the view that the situation will change in favour of YSRC once Jagan is back on the campaign trail. Ramesh has also thrown up another interesting question that is playing on the minds of the people - the sanctity of Samaikyandhra slogan embraced by YSRC. “Jagan’s party has virtually abandoned the Telangana region which has 119 seats. In other words, his focus is only on the 175 seats in Andhra and Rayalaseema. Does it gel with the united AP slogan?”
Sitarama Raju, a farmer in Palakole, recalled the poor turnout when Jagan’s sister, Sharmila, passed through the town as part of her tour to champion the cause of united AP. The story was similar at other places across Andhra.
As for the Telugu Desam, people are beginning to discuss a possible tie-up between the regional party and the BJP but one finds a lot of ifs and buts. “If there was one leader who focussed on governance and development,it was Naidu. We are fed up with whatever is happening over the past five years and will go for TDP this time,” declared Satish, busy preparing pans to his regular customers outside a tea shop at Hanuman Junction. “Add to this, the image of Modi, the combine might work,” chipped in Venkateswara Rao, a farmer.
Overall, it appears the TDP and YSRC are on an even keel but that is just for now. Whether the State will remain united or divided and how political equations play out in the coming months will determine which of the two will gain the edge, closer to the elections.