In a direct fight, sitting MP Shivakumar Udasi of BJP will take on Saleem Ahmed of Congress in Haveri Lok Sabha constituency.
Though the JD(S) has fielded Ravi Menasinkai, he could in all probability end up being a spoiler.
Caste equations are the dominant factors here, with issues on development works taking a backseat.
It is quite a remarkable change for a district which gave birth to three saint poets — Kanakadasa, Shishunal Sharief and Sarvajna — who spent their lives spreading the message of social harmony and a casteless society. Like the entire country, the anti-Modi and pro-Modi debate has taken centrestage here as well.
During former chief minister B S Yeddyurappa’s political heyday, the saffron party saw a huge surge in its prospects in the district. Former minister C M Udasi was his lieutenant.
The BJP had won seven out of eight Assembly segments in 2008. Shivakumar Udasi easily sailed through in the 2009 general elections defeating Saleem Ahmed by around 80,000 votes. Even ZP and TP elections were not an exception.
But Yeddyurappa’s fall-out with the BJP and the subsequent emergence of his KJP turned the political equations in the district upside down.
The BJP was routed in the 2013 Assembly elections but the KJP ended up winning just one seat, though it drew satisfaction from BJP’s rout. The Congress on the other hand swept the polls by winning seven seats.
Now that Yeddyurappa is back in BJP, the party hopes to regain its lost glory. The perceived Modi wave is only raising its hopes.
“The situation has drastically changed in favour of the BJP. The party’s votes, which were divided in 2013, will consolidate in this election,” district BJP general secretary Siddaraj Kalkoti said.
But Congress workers counter this argument saying that in politics one plus one does not necessarily add up to two. “The so-called union of BJP and KJP has not percolated to the grassroots level. There are still differences and distrust among workers,” said Mallikarjun, a Congress sympathiser at Kaginele.
There are over 4.5 lakh Lingayats in the district on whom Udasi is pinning his hopes. This apart, the BJP is banking on educated middle class voters who it thinks will vote for Modi this time. “You may not feel it, but there is an under-current in favour of Modi,” Kalkoti says.
On the other hand, Congress is busy consolidating the votes of Kurubas and Muslims, who together equal Lingayats, to nullify the BJP’s Lingayat card. This apart, it is depending on its traditional vote bank - SCs, STs and OBCs. The party also has the advantage of being in power in the state.
The heads of religious institutions have reportedly become active and are sending signals to their followers from closed-doors about their inclination.
Who would win in this game of caste consolidation? It all depends on how many votes the JD(S) candidate gets.
Menasinkai is a Panchamasali, a subsect of Lingayats, constituting around 1.4 lakh voters. “If he gets more votes, then it will be a problem for Udasi,” says a BJP worker.