BENGALURU:In what could be a challenge to the state, hit by drought and farmer suicides, the weather department has predicted a worryingly dry September.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department, rainfall could be below normal for September, expected to compound the problems associated with agriculture and water supply. As per IMD, 90 to 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) is considered ‘below normal’ rainfall. The south-west monsoon runs from June to September.
In the state, rainfall has been deficient in July and August.
Dr Geetha Agnihotri, director in-charge, Meteorological Centre, Bengaluru, said that models predicted the monsoon to be around 84 per cent of the LPA in August and September. However, in August, the rainfall was only 73 per cent.
In July, the deficiency was 49 per cent of the LPA, with the state receiving 142.5 mm of rainfall as against the normal of 279.5 mm. In coastal Karnataka, the region that receives the maximum rainfall, it was 37 per cent deficient rainfall in Uttara Kannada district, while it was 24 per cent in Dakshina Kannada, till now.
Noting that offshore trough, responsible for rain along the coasts during monsoons, was absent throughout August, she said the situation was likely to continue in September.
This bleak prediction will be disastrous for standing agricultural crops and would also result in a water crisis in several districts of the state.
Already, of the 175 taluks in the state, 135 have been declared drought-affected by the government.
Because of poor rainfall, the agriculture department has scaled down the food grain production estimates for 2015-16, pegged at 140 million tonnes, by 10 per cent.
Hopes on Depression
Climate experts have now pinned their hopes on a sudden depression in the Bay of Bengal, which might bring some respite. Generally, there are around 7-12 depression systems in the Bay, which result in copious rainfall in northern parts of Karnataka. However, the number has been markedly lower during the current year, Geetha said.
Former director of the centre B Puttanna observed that the prevalence of a surface trough over the interior parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu might result in thundershowers.
“Surface trough is generally observed in May during the pre-monsoon season. The trough during the fag end of the monsoon season is quite surprising,” he said.
Water Shortage
Puttanna noted that the water level at the reservoirs will not see a marked increase as the prime catchment areas of the state did not receive enough rainfall in June. “Water shortage across the state is imminent,” he said.
However, there might be respite for South Interior Karnataka as several districts in the region receive good showers in September, he said.
Worst-hit Districts
Raichur district with 63 per cent deficient rainfall is the worst hit, followed by Yadgir (61 per cent) and Vijayapura (56 per cent).
Rain Terms
Deficient Rainfall: Anything less than 90 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA)
Below Normal: 90 to 96 per cent rainfall
Normal: 96 to 104 per cent
Above Normal: 104 to 110 per cent
Excess: Anything over above normal rainfall
Monsoon Pattern
June: 198.5 mm rainfall in state against normal 194.9 mm. Yet, deficient rainfall in coastal and north interior Karnataka by 11 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively
July: 142.5 mm against 279.5 mm normal rainfall. 47 per cent deficiency in south interior Karnataka, 71 per cent in north interior Karnataka, 53 per cent in Malnad, 37 per cent in coastal region
August: 150.8 mm against 205.7 mm normal rainfall. Barring south interior Karnataka, rainfall deficient by over 30 per cent in state