BENGALURU: The second phase of Lok Sabha elections in 14 constituencies of Karnataka is a real test for BJP leader B S Yeddyurappa and his party, that had won 11 out of 14 seats in the Lingayat heartland in the 2014 polls. The party lost Bellary to Congress in 2018 bypolls.
In the 14 constituencies of South Karnataka that went to polls in the first phase on April 18, the BJP may gain to some extent, due to infighting in the coalition camp, but up north, it’s a direct contest between the two national parties. Under Yeddyurappa’s leadership, the BJP had done well in the region in 2018 assembly elections and Tuesday’s polls will again test if he still holds sway over the dominant Lingayat community or if his influence is waning.
For Yeddyurappa, the results in these constituencies will be crucial to assert his undisputed authority within the party, especially during possible political changes in the BJP state unit post Lok Sabha polls.
Many senior BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, have expressed doubts over the stability of the coalition government, especially after the LS polls. Even Congress leaders like Siddaramaiah had expressed concerns about it, if BJP does well in the elections. In such a situation, Yeddyurappa’s standing within the party depends on BJP’s performance in the LS polls.
While a change in the BJP state unit seems imminent after the elections, what will happen thereafter is not clear.
Yeddyurappa has made it clear that he will continue to work as opposition leader in the state assembly if he was moved out of party president’s position. However, it all depends on the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls.
“North Karnataka is very important for the BJP and current developments indicate that it has an edge in the region,” said political analyst M K Bhaskar Rao. “The Lingayat community felt that there was an attempt to divide them during 2018 polls. Now, ministers Shivakumar and Patil and others have only confirmed their doubts by issuing conflicting statements. All this has not helped the Congress in the region,” he said.
Water Resources Minister D K Shivakumar had apologised to people for Siddaramaiah government’s decision recommending separate religion status for Lingayats, while his senior cabinet colleague and an embarrassed Home Minister MB Patil — who was in the forefront of the separate religion agitation — hit back and affirmed that they will continue with the demand. Ironically, except Patil all ministers from the community, who were in the forefront of the agitation had lost in the assembly elections.
While the Congress hopes to regain its lost ground in North Karnataka by consolidation of AHINDA (Kannada acronym for minorities, dalits and backward classes) votes, the Lingayat strongman in the BJP, will be trying to reassert his hold over the region and within his own party.