HOSKOTE: As Gopal, his family and a few farm labourers go about harvesting the ragi crop in their fields, off the Bengaluru-Tirupati highway near Tavarekere, they discuss the political situation in Hoskote, which is going to polls on December 5 along with 14 other constituencies. Gopal and the other youngsters express their views directly, while their grandmother Shantamma is more measured when she says, “You never know how people vote.”
For now, all indications are that the constituency -- a mix of a well-developed town that has almost become an extension of Bengaluru, and a rural hinterland with thriving farming activities -- is set to see a cliffhanger. It’s a fierce three-way contest between BJP rebel-turned-Independent candidate Sharath Bache Gowda, Congress candidate Padmavathi Suresh and disqualified legislator fighting on the BJP ticket, MTB Nagaraj.
Sharath, who had lost the 2018 election as a BJP candidate to Nagaraj, then a Congressman, by a margin of around 7,000 votes, is making the contest a fight for “self-respect”.
On its part, the Congress is confident of romping home with its traditional support base of Kuruba, Scheduled Caste and Ahinda votes, while Nagaraj seems to be banking heavily on the BJP’s cadre strength and his own supporters to see him through. CM BS Yediyurappa had given clear indications that he would back Nagaraj, when he had declared that winning Hoskote was a matter of prestige for him and the party.
BJP leaders say they have done the groundwork in the constituency. “There is no threat from the rebel candidate. The entire cadre, right from booth-level committees, is with us,” says constituency election in-charge, Ranganath.
While Nagaraj is busy campaigning, BJP leaders are helping him by trying to retain the party’s support base, that had helped it garner 98,000 votes in the recent LS polls.
However, the general mood among people does not bode well for the BJP’s calculations of retaining the party’s base. Many young residents of Hoskote, like Sachin and Laxmi Narayan, who had worked for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, say the party gained strength only after Sharath’s father BN Bache Gowda’s entry.
“The BJP used to get around 2,000 votes earlier, which went up to 98,000 in the Lok Sabha election. It is all because of Bache Gowda,” says Sachin, sporting a black T-shirt with ‘Swabhimaani’ emblazoned on it. For Sharath’s supporters, it is an election of self-respect. They are projecting it as a fight between money power and self-respect. “We cannot support Nagaraj even if he is contesting on a BJP ticket. False cases were registered against many youngsters associated with Bache Gowda and the BJP, now we cannot work for him,” they say.
While Sharath is hoping to retain his support base, which consists largely of votes the BJP polled in 2018 elections, the Congress is working on retaining its traditional support base. “Traditionally, the constituency always supported Congress. There are around 55,000 Scheduled Caste votes and 32,000 Kuruba voters, and we are confident of getting over 90% of these votes,” says Congress MLA Byrati Suresh, whose wife Padmavathi is the party candidate.
In a three-way fight, around 80,000 votes of the total 2.17 lakh voters is good enough to get elected.
“We are getting a good response from voters in all villages, especially women, who wait for me for two to three hours,” says Padmavathi, who campaigns from 9am to 10pm, addressing rallies in 16 villages in a day, sometimes as many as 22 villages.
However, unlike in Sharath’s rallies, the number of people at Congress meetings in the villages is low. But that has not deterred the candidate or her supporters. “All original Congress leaders and workers are with us,” she says.
Padmavathi is seeking votes based on development works taken up during the Siddaramaiah government from 2013 to 2018. “We are asking people to vote for Congress again for development of the constituency,” she says.
On the ground, the Congress seems to be doing a meticulous job. The KPCC has deployed its observers at many places to keep track of its leaders siding with Nagaraj. Their job is to immediately bring it to senior leaders’ notice, who will take corrective measures. “There is a general feeling among voters that they voted for the party in 2013 and 2018, and will do it again in 2019,” said Syed Wali Khader, a KPCC observer. He and Mylarappa have been keeping a close watch on political developments at the grass roots in and around Bylenarsapura.
Interestingly, many in Bylenarsapura, a village with 3,336 voters, mostly from the minority community, feel the fight is between Sharath and the Congress.
“We supported Nagaraj in the last election, but he changed parties. This time, it will be between Sharath and the Congress,” said Riyaz Khan, sipping tea at a popular roadside stall. “Sharath seems to have an advantage, but it is difficult to say,” said Aslam.
Sharath’s task is not easy either. Unlike in 2018, he is contesting as an Independent, and Nagaraj, who has put everything at stake, is a no pushover. The Congress, too, is showing signs of fighting back. Many fear that a lot of money is likely to flow over the next few days.But like Shantamma, many feel that for now, it is difficult to say how things will pan out in the next two weeks.
