BENGALURU: Will the BJP-BSY gambit pay off? That’s the question on top of everyone’s minds as 15 Assembly segments vote today in the bypolls.Starting 7 am on Thursday, electors of Athani, Kagwad, Gokak, Yellapur, Hirekerur, Ranebennur, Vijayanagar, Chikkaballapur, Hoskote, KR Pet, Hunsur, Shivajinagar, KR Puram, Mahalakshmi Layout and Yeshwanthpur will cast their votes yet again.
It’s not just the fate of the BS Yediyurappa-led BJP government in Karnataka, the bypolls will also decide the standing of the next-generation leaders in both the Congress and BJP, like DK Shivakumar, Laxman Savadi, Dr Ashwath Narayan, apart from the political futures of the disqualified Congress and JDS MLAs. The BJP has to win at least six of the 15 seats to continue in power. With polls pending in two more seats, the strength of the Karnataka Assembly currently is 222, excluding the nominated member. The BJP, which has 106 members, including independent MLA and minister H Nagesh, needs six more seats to gain a simple majority.
The Congress, which has 66 seats, and the JDS with 34 seats, may stand a chance if they win 12 seats together. The Congress has been making overtures towards its former ally in the hope that Vokkaliga votes can be consolidated in their favour.
While Chief Minister Yediyurappa has been aggressively wooing the Lingayats, former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy has focused on consolidating the Vokkaliga votes. With his salt-and-pepper beard which he has refused to do away with ever since his return from Tihar Jail, DK Shivakumar too has been busy consolidating Vokkaliga votes for the Congress while Siddaramaiah has been instrumental in garnering AHINDA votes. It remains to be seen if the anger among voters against the disqualified MLAs will deliver the goods for the Congress.
Even if the BJP wins 10 out of the 15 seats, the thin margin is likely to give Yediyurappa a constant headache, with internal dissent and rebellion looming large. The BJP has had to face rebellion after it decided to accommodate the disqualified MLAs as candidates. Though it has been contained for now, there is a fear that it could blow up again as the bypoll contestants are seen as outsiders and old-timers in the BJP feel ignored, especially in North Karnataka region, the party stronghold, where it has a strong regional leadership.
The bypolls are also a test of survival for the disqualified MLAs of the Congress and JDS, 13 of whom are contesting on BJP tickets now. “Of the 15 candidates, let’s say 10 win. Then, five people will have lost their political careers. It can no longer be taken for granted that one resigns and then comes back,” pointed out Dr Narendar Pani, political analyst and professor at the School of Social Sciences, National Institute of Advanced Studies. This has been Congress’ key campaign strategy — ensuring that ‘voters teach a lesson’ to the disqualified MLAs for ‘treachery’.
The IT raids on Congress’ Ranebennur candidate K B Koliwad a day before polling not yielding any results, added muscle to the party’s accusation against the BJP of vindictive politics through central agencies. While the JDS is looking to regain strength, at least in terms of numbers if not turf, the BJP has been pitching the ‘stable government’ narrative, fully aware of voters’ disinterest in yet another poll.