Second Covid wave will be worse than first: Dr V Ravi
BENGALURU: The number of Covid cases in Karnataka has increased ten-fold since the beginning of March from 250 per day to nearly 2,800 a day. Renowned virologist and Nodal Officer for Genomic Confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, Dr V Ravi, in an exclusive interview with The New Sunday Express, talks about the second wave and when it will peak in the state. Being the only Indian on the International Scientific Advisory Board for Russia’s Sputnik vaccine, he also gives details of the progress in trials of the vaccine and when it is expected in the country.
When is the peak of the second wave in Karnataka, and how bad will it be?
We saw the first surge in August 2020. When Unlock Phase 1 began on June 1, people started coming out and we peaked over the next two months. Now, people are moving about freely, and the lag between an initial surge and peak will be much lesser. In my opinion, it will peak in May. The second wave is going to be much worse than the first one, unless there is some drastic change and people start avoiding public gathering, crowding in close spaces and follow mask norms. It will be foolish to think that the second wave will be milder. We will definitely see a drastic increase in cases and fatality rates will also be similar or worse than the last time.
What can the government do in terms of preparation and containment?
We now know how to treat patients, classify who needs home isolation, who has to be put in ICU care, etc. It is important for the government not to lose time. We should expect the surge and get the human resources required, beds prepared, ICUs free and oxygen facilities intact. People should not delay coming to the hospital. This is crucial.
Will there be a third wave too?
Yes. Definitely. It is now going to be a road with many humps. We should learn to live with them. We may see third, fourth, fifth and many more waves.
New Variant and Variant Of Concern have been the buzzwords. Is that the reason for the surge?
There is a lot of misinformation regarding the terminologies themselves. Variant means a virus where there are mutations and that mutation has resulted in a change in aminoacids. That change in aminoacids is so significant that it is helping the virus spread faster. ‘Variant of Concern’ (VOC) means a variant that is rapidly spreading and taking over the space that was held by the earlier virus. VOC that we have today are UK, South African and Brazilian variants.
You would have seen reports about the ‘Double Mutant’ in Maharashtra. Is it a VOC? It looks to be. But to call it a VOC, it has to fulfil certain conditions. We need hard data to say the number of people getting infected from an index patient with ‘double mutant’ is more than the previous one. That means we need excellent tracking and testing data. Otherwise, we need to isolate the virus and conduct experiments in the lab and show that this virus multiplies much more efficiently than the one earlier. Both have not been done in Maharashtra’s case.
What are the immediate measures to control the situation?
I would say ban all public functions. Lockdown is an extreme step. Without affecting economic activity, we can do a lot of things, like improving testing, testing and tracing. The human resource we require for this is less now, while earlier, Health, Home, Revenue and Education departments worked together. We need to temporarily pull them back. The government should close down educational institutions that are not facing exams, ban common activities in apartments, allow only alternate seating at cinema halls and keep markets open for longer hours.
What about Sputnik’s entry into India? Where are we currently in terms of Indian trials of the vaccine?
The Drug Controller General of India has asked for local data for efficacy. By April-end, we will have the data, while international data is promising. The Central Government should look at fast-tracking the vaccines that have been licensed elsewhere like it did with Covishield and Covaxin. If we are opening the vaccination for people above 45 years, it is quite a big number and we will face a shortage of vaccines. Compressed or bridge trials can be done. Many vaccines, like the one from Johnson and Johnson, are ready and can be approved here.