BENGALURU: As Karnataka shifts to war mode to mitigate the third wave and rise in Covid-19 infections, experts who are also part of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) say that each area will face a different risk, and the battle has to be fought with microplanning, using data from seroprevalence and vaccination coverage.
“Not every area will have the same risk. The battle against multiple waves has to be fought using data from seroprevalence and vaccination coverage,” said Dr Giridhara R Babu, renowned epidemiologist and member of TAC. On Twitter, Dr Babu listed out four possibilities. “Possibility A: low vaccination coverage and low seroprevalence, B: low vaccination coverage with high seroprevalence C: High vaccination coverage and low seroprevalence and D: high vaccination coverage and high seroprevalence.”
He said, “We can assess areas based on the matrix of vaccination coverage and seroprevalence, and can understand four different possibilities. Areas with lower seroprevalence and vaccination coverage are the most vulnerable, not only for rise in cases but also increased hospitalisation and deaths. These areas are of highest priority for saving lives. All of society requires to focus and strengthen efforts in these areas. Areas with high vaccination coverage will have the advantage of relatively low mortality and hospitalisation,” he added.
Experts say it is now evident that the SARS-CoV-2 is behaving differently in each pocket of the state, so one policy for all may not work in mitigating infections. Each district and city should have micro containment zones, and also factor in seropositivity.
“A lot of work needs to be done beforehand in terms of microplanning. We need to look at districts with low seroprevalence, districts with high prevalence but low vaccination coverage, and districts with low seropositivity and low vaccination coverage. They will be the most vulnerable, and the population has to be vaccinated to ensure it is free from risk of mortality and hospitalisation,” said Dr Manjunath, Director, Jayadeva Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases. He also warned that at no cost should the state government slow down testing. The key to identify cases is testing.
Meanwhile, doctors also said the positivity rate in the state is increasing slowly, and one must keep a watch on this at the district level.
“Positivity rates vary in each district. We must also watch positivity rates and ensure we increase testing, vaccination, and have more containment zones as soon as cases are reported. If we allow clusters to form, it won’t take long for us to see the third wave,” another expert opined.