BENGALURU: Karnataka saw active Covid-19 cases drop by as much as 97 per cent over a period of 100 days, from 6,03,639 on May 17 to just 18,386 as of August 31.
While some parts of the country are again witnessing a rise in the number of fresh cases, Karnataka could well be bucking the trend and the chances of a third wave may be very low, unless complacency seeps in and the state becomes less vigilant, according to a study.
However, the festive season in Karnataka is round the corner and 18 thousand active cases indicate that the risk is far from over.
The state is in the sweet spot to neutralise the impact of Covid-19 to a bare minimum and enable its people to move towards resuming a normal life.
This can be achieved if Karnataka manages to bring the active cases below 10,000 before September-end, and the sooner the better, according to an analysis by Jeevan Raksha, an initiative of Proxima Consulting.
Between August 3 and 31, ten districts — Bengaluru Urban (9,322), Dakshina Kannada (8,720), Udupi (3,719), Mysuru (2,728), Hassan (2,634), Kodagu (1,981), Uttara Kannada (,1386), Chikkamagaluru (1,326), Shivamogga (1,258) and Tumakuru (1,216) — contributed 87 per cent of the total cases in the state.
“Karnataka needs to micro-manage these 10 districts by increasing testing by three to four times and trace the positive patients quickly in order to break the chain. The government needs to test the right people, such as primary and secondary contacts, beyond those being tested for crossing the borders, attending schools, colleges, etc,” said Mysore Sanjeev, convener, Jeevan Raksha.
As for the active cases during the same period, five districts accounted for 75 per cent of them.
Bengaluru Urban (7,438) contributed 41 per cent of the total active cases, Dakshina Kannada (2,322) contributed 13 per cent, Udupi (1,697) 9 per cent, Mysuru (1,021) and Hassan (1,050) 6 per cent each.
The performance of these districts in September and October will set the future Covid-19 trend in the state, the analysis stated.
Bidar and Raichur can become Covid-free in September. As of date, Bidar has no active cases and Raichur has four active cases.
While Raichur has witnessed no Covid-19 deaths in this period, Yadgir, Gadag, Bidar and Kalaburagi witnessed one death each.
On the other hand, Dakshina Kannada became the first district in the state to record more deaths than Bengaluru in a month.
Two-thirds of the deaths occurred in five districts — Dakshina Kannada (130), Bengaluru Urban (101), Hassan (54), Kolar (49), Mysuru (49), Udupi (38) and Mandya (26).