Political developments in the run-up to the 2023 assembly polls bear an uncanny resemblance to happenings in the state around a decade back, but with some qualitative changes that could have a bearing on the upcoming elections.
Around this time in 2012, the tenure of the BJP government was coming to an end. Congress was on the path of resurgence. Former CM BS Yediyurappa had left the party in November that year and returned in January 2014, ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. By then, the damage was done. BJP took a big hit in the 2013 assembly polls.
Cut to the present. The BJP government is on the last stretch of its tenure. In the face of a flurry of controversies, it is struggling to highlight its works and firmly set its narrative for the polls. Added to that, it had to battle a perception that Lingayat strongman Yediyurappa was sidelined in the BJP, although he never stated it. On its part, like in 2012, Congress is showing signs of putting up a good fight, though it has its share of challenges.
Looking from that background, Yediyurappa’s elevation to the BJP’s highest decision-making body, the Parliamentary Board, is a smart move by the BJP central leadership. It is an attempt to send a message to the Lingayat community as well as the workers, that the former CM continues to be an important player in the party’s scheme of things. It is also a strategic move to counter Congress, which is making all-out efforts to woo the dominant community.
The BJP central leadership’s decision to include the former CM in the parliamentary board, that too by removing two powerful leaders – Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and Shivraj Singh Chouhan – points to Yediyurappa’s importance in the BJP’s poll strategy.
Although Yediyurappa has been maintaining that he would work to bring the party back to power, the latest move will ensure his active participation in electioneering. Also, by having a seat in the Parliamentary Board, he will have a say in all the important decisions, including selecting candidates for the assembly polls.
In the next few months, Yediyurappa is likely to drive the party’s election strategy, while Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is likely to largely focus on administration and taking development works to the people.
For now, it looks like the move helped to boost the morale of the party workers. But, will it be a game-changer for BJP?
One has to wait for the next few months to see how things will pan out. Unlike in the past, Yediyurappa is not the CM candidate. There is a complete change in the party’s style of functioning, with a strong central leadership. Also, the former CM as a Parliamentary Board member, and the party’s face in South India, has to factor in the sensibilities of different sections within the party, including those who were not aligned with his style of functioning when he was the CM.
The change in the ruling party’s strategy is likely to have a ripple effect on the Congress, which is likely to take a relook at its strategy. While the BJP is banking on possible differences among Congress leaders who are nurturing chief ministerial ambitions, the grand old party is trying to make the most of the situation the BJP is in. To some extent, Congress was successful in the by-elections to assembly seats, legislative council elections, and even local bodies polls.
Former minister MB Patil’s appointment as chairman of the campaign committee, former AICC chief Rahul Gandhi’s visit to a prominent Lingayat mutt in the state, and recent remarks by senior Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah and state Congress president DK Shivakumar on the Veerashaiva-Lingayat issue that hit Congress in 2018 polls, display the concerted efforts by the party to win over the Lingayats.
While the Congress will continue its efforts to woo the Lingayat community, the party is likely to rely more on its traditional support base – the minorities, backward classes, and Dalits – although they no longer solidly back the party like they once did. Siddaramaiah is going full throttle on that front, while Shivakumar will be hoping to get support from the Vokkaliga community.
Janata Dal (Secular) which brings in a crucial third dimension to state politics, too, is banking on the same factors. While former PM HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy are making efforts to retain their hold on Old Mysuru, the party is also trying to woo minorities and former Union minister CM Ibrahim’s appointment as the party’s state president is a clear indication of its strategies.
While all three parties will continue to fine-tune their election strategies, Yediyurappa’s elevation will certainly shake up things within the BJP.
Ramu Patil
Associate Editor ramu@ newindianexpress.com