Euphoria in the BJP camp over the party’s stupendous victory in Gujarat is quite understandable. But, contrary to the general notion and the party leaders’ rhetoric over emulating the “Gujarat model”, its strategists need to more closely look at the Himachal Pradesh result for taking corrective measures.
The defeat in the North Indian state with snow-capped mountains comes as a warning bell for the BJP ahead of the 2023 polls. It shows that the party is not invincible. A determined opposition with the right strategy can trounce it. Even with a strong high command at the Centre, dealing with factionalism in the party and rebels in the fray is not an easy task and could even prove detrimental.
In Gujarat, the party has managed seven successive victories. But Karnataka, like Himachal Pradesh, has a decades-old tradition of voting out incumbent governments. The ruling party that is hoping to return to power is likely to follow the Gujarat model of benching many seniors to make way for new faces. That may be an effective way of overcoming anti-incumbency at the local level, but if not handled well, the party brass could face a Himachal Pradesh-like situation in Karnataka. Internal sabotage could make a big difference in closely contested seats.
BJP looks to usher in many changes. Unlike in previous elections, this time the party is going to the polls not under its Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa’s leadership, but under the “collective leadership”. Although the former CM is busy campaigning for the party, it is yet to be seen how the dominant Lingayat community that has backed him and the party in the recent elections will vote this time.
Retaining support from the Lingayat community will be crucial for BJP even as it makes all efforts to consolidate its support base among the Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), and tries hard to make inroads into the Vokkaliga bastion. Congress is also trying hard to win over Lingayats and reconsolidate its support among Vokkaligas, who seem to be backing JDS led by former PM HD Deve Gowda in the Old Mysuru region
The Old Mysuru region still looks to be a big challenge for BJP which is evenly poised against Congress in most other regions in the state. Bengaluru City with 28 Assembly seats is crucial for both BJP and Congress. Here, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) can prove to be a headache for the ruling party. Unlike in Gujarat, where AAP cut into Congress votes, in Bengaluru, it hopes to get the support of urban voters disenchanted with the BJP. AAP may find it difficult to win seats in Bengaluru, but it can damage BJP’s prospects to some extent. AAP has been striving for a foothold in Bengaluru for the last few years and has even managed to onboard some prominent personalities.
The BJP government is also under pressure from many communities that are demanding reservation and it is yet to be seen how it will impact the polls as leaders cutting across party lines are part of such pressure groups fighting for their communities.
Congress leaders in the state are itching for a fight, unlike in Gujarat, where its central leaders almost left the battlefield even before the war started. In Karnataka, enthused by the results in the recent bypolls and Legislative Council elections, local Congress leaders see the possibility of the party coming to power and are ready to sweat it out.
The party, however, faces the major challenge of putting up a united front as the competition among the chief ministerial aspirants could prove its Achilles heel. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s emphasis on unity among the leaders indicated both the magnitude of the challenge as well the party top brass’s intent to address it.
Kharge during his maiden visit to his home district Kalaburagi gave a clear indication that the high command will assert itself to ensure unity and make all efforts to win elections in the state. In comparison to Congress, BJP learns quickly from its failures and adapts fast. Post Himachal polls, it is likely to come back with more vigour, making Congress’s task even more difficult.
Now, the focus of top leaders from both parties will shift to Karnataka. They will be looking to fine-tune their strategies post-Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh polls. Karnataka is crucial for BJP for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls as the party holds 25 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats. Retaining power in the state is also important for the BJP as it tries to make inroads into other southern states.