BENGALURU: Indicating that the peak of the third wave curve is behind them, 19 districts in Karnataka have shown a consistent drop in their day-wise test positivity rates (TPR) between January 19 and January 29, reveals data from the state Covid war room. Eleven remaining districts, however, have shown an increase.
The districts with the biggest fall in the 10-day period include Ramanagara, where the TPR reduced by 15.63 per cent from 27.01 per cent to 11.38 percent; Mandya by 15.53 per cent from 40.54 per cent to 25.01 per cent; Kolar by 12.51 per cent from 29.51 per cent to 17 per cent; and Bengaluru Urban by 10.20 per cent from 25.44 per cent to 15.24 per cent. (Entire list in the graphic)
On the other hand, Bagalkot saw the biggest increase in its day TPR (27.7 per cent), surging from a mere 2.3 per cent on January 19 to 30 percent 10 days later. Other districts that have shown an increase are Chamarajanagar, Haveri, Kodagu, Yadgir and Belagavi, in the descending order. Dr Pradeep Banandur, head of epidemiology department, NIMHANS who is also a member of the state Covid TAC, explained that the districts showing a consistent reduction in TPR for at least seven days indicate that they are past their peak and those that are still seeing a rise are yet to reach their peak.
“Some districts that started witnessing the third wave earlier than others are seeing a dip in cases already. We had expected the decline to begin by February 2, but these districts have shown an earlier trend. It is a good sign and it can be attributed to the Covid vaccine coverage and not so much to people adhering to Covid appropriate behaviour (CAB). The only restrictions were weekend and night curfew and it is unlikely that people followed CAB,” said Dr Pradeep Banandur, head of epidemiology department, NIMHANS.
On the 11 districts recording an increase in TPRs, he said, “We need to observe the trend for two more weeks and we expect the decline to begin after that. The third wave is expected to peter out by February-end. But as the weekend and night curfews are being lifted, a slight increase is likely by next Friday or Saturday. After that, cases will reduce.”
Dr MK Sudarshan, Chairman, TAC, said districts such as Bengaluru, Tumakuru, Mysuru, Mandya, Kolar, Hassan, Dakshina Kannada and Udupi saw an earlier trend due to regular travelling by people for business, work and other activities, while districts like Yadgir and Koppal witnessed a different trend.
“It has been noticed across the three waves that cases surge initially in Bengaluru, followed by other districts. TPR also depends on various factors, such as testing rate, testing strategy, etc. The testing strategy too has not been uniform in all districts,” he pointed out.